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Oil Prices Fall About 1.5 Percent Due to Recession Risks

Oil prices on global markets fell last week as traders fear that the slowdown in growth of the world’s largest economies will lead to a decline in demand for 'black gold'.

The price of a barrel on the London market fell by 1.5 percent last week, to $96.72, while on the American market, the barrel decreased by 1.45 percent, to $90.77.

Oil prices have been fluctuating in a narrow range in recent days as the situation in the largest world economies is not enviable. The American economy is technically in recession, and a recession due to the energy crisis threatens the eurozone, while the growth of Asian economies, particularly China, is slowing.

– The main sources of concern are currently the global recession and weakening demand, given the weak data from the U.S., eurozone, and China. There are signs of slowing economic growth, which could reduce demand for oil – analysts at PVM state in their market review.

Traders are also worried about further slowing growth in the world’s largest economies as additional interest rate hikes are expected in the U.S. and eurozone, given that central banks must curb excessively high inflation.

In addition, a strong dollar negatively impacts prices as it makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies. The dollar index, which shows the movement of the value of the U.S. dollar against the other six major world currencies, jumped 2.2 percent last week, to 108.00 points, the highest level in over a month.

– A prolonged trend of a strong dollar would represent one of the biggest obstacles to sustainable oil price growth – says Jim Ritterbusch from Ritterbusch and Associates.

On the other hand, prices received support from a strong decline in inventories in the U.S. last week as companies found buyers in European countries seeking a replacement for Russian oil ahead of the European Union sanctions against Russia, which come into effect on December 5. U.S. exports surged to a record five million barrels per day.

– We estimate that the EU will need to replace 1.2 million barrels per day of imports from Russia with crude oil from other regions – notes the advisory firm FGE in a statement.

After rising more than 50 percent last year, thanks to the recovery of the global economy from the coronavirus crisis, oil prices have increased by just over 20 percent since the beginning of this year, primarily due to the war in Ukraine.