If Russia Stops Gas Supply, Germany Will Be Able to Heat for Less Than Three Months

Germany could experience a very cold winter this year, even if reserves are filled according to government targets. Refilling gas stocks to 95 percent by November would be sufficient for only two to three months of demand. This becomes a challenge in the event that Russia decides to completely halt supply, believes Klaus Mueller, president of the Federal Network Agency, the energy regulator in Germany, as reported by Bloomberg. 

The Worst Energy Crisis in Decades

Stocks are currently filled to about 77 percent, which is two weeks ahead of the planned schedule. Germany began to rush to fill its gas reserves for winter after the onset of Russian aggression, especially after Moscow significantly reduced flows on the key Nord Stream pipeline, thereby consciously initiating the worst European energy crisis in decades.

We remind that the German government has repeatedly called for reduced consumption, warned about rationing, and recently introduced a tax on gas usage.

– We are a bit faster than before regarding storage filling, but that is not a sign that we can relax. Instead of relaxing now, we need to see this as a push and continue like this – Mueller stated in a recent interview. What also poses a risk for Germany is the possibility of a colder autumn and further supply interruptions, which is why the government’s goal of having storage filled to 85 percent by October is very challenging. 

Mueller also believes that meeting the November target of 95 percent seems ‘difficult to achieve’ because some storage facilities require more time to fill. 

– I cannot promise you that all storage facilities in Germany will be 95 percent full in November, even under good supply and demand conditions. In the best case, three-quarters of them will meet the target – he said.

Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario 

The situation is already far from rosy, given that the flows of Russian gas through Nord Stream are currently only about 20 percent of capacity, which has led to warnings from the German government that supply can be halted at any moment as Moscow retaliates against numerous European sanctions. 

Germany has already begun working to mitigate the supply crisis as much as possible, and this week an agreement was reached on the import of liquefied natural gas through two new terminals. The idea of keeping the remaining German nuclear reactors on the grid after their shutdown this year is also being reconsidered. Such a move could reduce gas usage by three percent in 2023, according to BloombergNEF. 

They are also exploring ways in which supply priority could be given to industries that are crucial for the economy, with a digital platform that will assist with proposals for various scenarios, which is expected to be ready as early as October.