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While there is no military winner in Ukraine, peace negotiations are not possible

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has already turned into a long, bloody, exhausting war. Vladimir Putin is already a loser in this war because he failed to conquer Ukraine in a blitzkrieg. However, Volodymyr Zelensky has not yet won. For Ukraine, this is literally a war for state and national survival. For the West, this is a war that will define the new geopolitical architecture of Europe, the central (though not the most powerful) point of what we understand by the term Western civilization. Globally, this is a war that will establish new relations between the USA as the leader of the Western world and Russia, which will substantially affect the further development of relations in the triangle USA – China – Russia, which will change trends in the global energy and economic order – from globalization to national and regional self-sufficiency.

In short, while Ukrainians, but also Russians, are dying in the war, Ukrainians defending their bare (national) survival, and Russians as attackers and (collateral) victims of a mythomaniac great power policy, the rest of the world is – reshuffling. And that is why it is extremely important for those in decision-making positions, whether in the political or economic sphere, to be up to date. To timely join new trends.

Media Deceptions

Being up to date means not unreservedly accepting media suggestions in interpreting this war in the age of TikTok. One of the first misconceptions that spread massively was the one in the early days of the invasion that suggested through various computer simulations that the Russians were about to conquer Kyiv and all of Ukraine. However, it is not that simple to militarily conquer a city of three million inhabitants and a country of 45 million, with an area twice that of Germany. It is not easy to conquer even Mariupol, which the Russians have obviously destined for the fate of Vukovar in 1991 – as a symbolically destroyed city. But the ten times smaller Vukovar withstood a siege for three months, and that with very scarce weaponry. It would have held out longer, being razed to the ground, had it had weapons. And it seems that the defenders of Mariupol are not lacking in weapons.

The second media deception (from knowledge or ignorance) is that some magical negotiations will instantly end the war. Until the winner and the defeated in the war in Ukraine are clearly crystallized on the military front, all negotiations are merely a tactical form, maintaining a communication channel. Only after a clear military result on the ground can true negotiations begin that will transform that state into a peace agreement by cutting down the triumphalism of the winner and ensuring an honorable exit for the defeated. And here Putin has already lost. Namely, he can never conquer and appropriate all of Ukraine, which is the goal of his great power project of the ‘Russian world’.

But many challenging battles lie ahead for Zelensky before victory. It could also end in a stalemate: with a divided Ukraine that will be a modern version of the former German Berlin Wall. In any case, it seems that these true peace negotiations will not be led by Vladimir Putin, who is so deeply tied to the project of ‘returning’ Ukraine to Russia that he must also leave the scene with it. I would not speculate on the manner. And every call from Ukrainian President Zelensky to Putin to negotiate one-on-one is actually just a defiant message to Putin that he has lost the war. And an offer that Putin, of course, cannot accept.

Who waits for the result – misses the opportunity

Moreover, when negotiations do occur, they will be conducted in some new formats. The UN Security Council, which is the formal global security manager, has definitely been devalued in its security role after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Because when one of the permanent members of the Security Council (in this case, Russia) is an actor in an interstate war, it is completely blocked. Neither NATO nor the USA as its leader will agree to direct negotiations with Putin, which he desires because it would give his conquering war in Ukraine a global connotation. The EU is a non-existent defensive factor in all this. Between Turkey and Israel, which offer their mediation services, Israel is at an advantage. But there is still a long way to go…

However, for all those who make strategic political and economic decisions, both in the EU and in Croatia, it is important to understand both the length and the trends of that path. It is important to timely engage in processes of energy and economic self-sufficiency, both at the national and European levels. To recognize the key role of the USA in European security and the key role of NATO in the European security-political architecture. Because the new world order is being created now, during the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those who wait for results will miss the opportunity. Indeed, not for the first time.