By accepting unconditional negotiations with the Ukrainian delegation at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has actually acknowledged that he has lost the first round of the war to subjugate Ukraine and return it to the ‘Russian world’. It was already evident that his blitzkrieg- invasion was not going according to plan when he publicly called on the Ukrainian army to do what he failed to do – to overthrow its state leadership, which Putin honors with attributes such as ‘drug addicts, nationalists, neo-Nazis…’.
Meanwhile, these ‘drug addicts, nationalists, and neo-Nazis’ led by President Volodymyr Zelensky not only have not been overthrown and replaced by a puppet Putin government, but they have successfully organized a defense (both military and promotional), uniting the entire democratic world in an unprecedented way in support of their fight for freedom of political choice and state sovereignty, politically uniting Europe firmly alongside NATO and the USA. In just a few days, Volodymyr Zelensky has become a globally recognizable face of the freedom fighter.
Where will the war stop?
However, the Russo-Ukrainian war, which in its geopolitical essence boils down to a battle between Russia and the USA for spheres of influence in Europe, is just at the beginning. Moreover, today we do not even know whether the war initiated by Putin will stop only in Ukraine. Or whether it will take different forms and spread to other volatile European areas where the interests of Russia and NATO clash: from our Western Balkan neighborhood (BiH, Montenegro, Kosovo), through Poland and the Baltic states to Moldova and Georgia. We also do not know whether it will stop at conventional forms of warfare or will involve nuclear weapons.
After the failed blitzkrieg and the lost first round of the war, Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he is ready for anything. Even to use nuclear weapons. But this has further united Europe in its readiness to resist and sanction Russia, so even German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been forced to make a drastic change in policy towards Russia due to the new reality, so as not to acquire the attribute of being the last Putin ally in the EU. But Putin’s nuclear threat has further reduced this conflict between Russia and the West to two essential actors, two nuclear superpowers – the USA and Russia. And it has prompted further hurried alignment in Europe – alongside the USA and NATO.
As confirmation of the reduction of the management of this conflict to two real actors, messages from confidential sources in the Pentagon can be read, disseminated these days through the politically influential portal Politico, that due to the nuclear threat, hopes are placed in direct contacts between the chiefs of the joint staffs of the American and Russian armies: General Mark Milley and General Valery Gerasimov. They have reportedly maintained direct contacts since September last year, and last contacted each other in early February this year. This means that nuclear security (or, if you will, danger) and global security in general remain in the hands of the military elites of nuclear superpowers. It also means that in the event of a greater direct escalation, issues will be resolved in the Moscow – Washington relationship, not Moscow – Brussels or Moscow – NATO, although at the head of NATO’s military wing is also American General Tod Wolters. This is comforting news at this moment because decisions about nuclear conflict are not made by career political bureaucrats who will protest against the atomic bomb on Monday, claim that it is not a bad option on Tuesday, and conclude on Wednesday that the best thing would be – to drop the bomb. Five days of wartime reality have united the EU more than fifteen years of talks and made it a smaller but extremely important Western brother of the USA.
