If the past 18 months in the Twilight Zone have taught us anything, it is that we should not hastily write obituaries for Covid-19. We have already unsuccessfully declared victory once, but in the meantime, things have significantly changed in terms of arguments and ambitions, despite the fact that numbers are rising in some countries, such as Croatia. Victory may not be on the table in the foreseeable future, but the next best thing is a return to normal life. With Covid-19, it is now clear to everyone except Australians and New Zealanders that we will have to deal with it for a long time, perhaps forever, so the mentality of decision-makers and ordinary people has begun to rapidly adapt to this fact. Of course, vaccines are a key reason for this, but there are others. For instance, the strong tourist season in Croatia, well above expectations, is a message in itself. People simply were not willing to throw away another summer and preferred to accept certain complications when crossing borders, as well as the risk that crowds of sweaty and (semi)naked people carry with them.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has diligently published its cartoons, but this time it had no visible effect on tourist behavior, which is one of the indicators of people’s fatigue from the cat-and-mouse game with the virus. More broadly, it is enough to look around and see that people have largely continued with their lives, regardless of the latest numbers. The second reason is of a financial nature. Many citizens seem not to be aware of this yet, but strict measures are an extremely expensive sport that has drained even countries with far deeper pockets than Croatia’s.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already sent the bill to citizens for the seriously shaken healthcare system in the form of increased contributions, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently sent a letter to Congress requesting an urgent increase in the borrowing ‘ceiling’ as the U.S. is exhausted from financing measures to combat the epidemic, and still needs to support economic recovery.
It is precisely economic recovery that offers one of the strongest arguments for ending the hated restrictive measures, as well as for almost declaring the end of the epidemic. The downturns that economies experienced during the past year and the beginning of this year, to the pleasant surprise of almost everyone, have begun to be quickly annulled, and the ‘V’ recovery scenario (sharp down, sharp up), which was written off at the beginning of the year when things did not look promising, has even been brought back into play. After seeing how nicely budgets are filling up and the economy is racing back to pre-pandemic levels, governments are no longer so ‘trigger-happy’, meaning that few are now willing to jeopardize such a trend by reverting to restrictive measures for society as a whole.
