The DZS Estimate Has Arrived: Our GDP Has Fallen by 15.1 Percent!

The Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS) has published its first estimate of the movement of the Croatian gross domestic product for the second quarter – the decline is 15.1 percent, which is the largest decline since data has been measured since 1996. 

Circumstances related to the COVID-19 pandemic have affected the availability and reliability of data and information typically used for estimating quarterly GDP. Difficulties in measuring economic development, especially in the service sector, may lead to potentially larger revisions of quarterly GDP – states the DZS announcement.

Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP compared to the previous period shows a negative rate of change of 14.9 percent, and compared to the same quarter in 2019, it is real lower by 15.1 percent.

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DZS GDP Movement

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The largest negative contribution to the reduction in GDP volume in the second quarter of 2020 was achieved by:

• a decline in the export of goods and services
• a reduction in personal consumption

The export of goods and services fell in the second quarter by just over 40 percent, while the import of goods and services decreased by 28 percent. On the other hand, government consumption increased by 0.7 percent!

The real decline in GDP of 15.1 percent is the largest real decline since 1995, when quarterly GDP estimates began. In all categories of GDP from the expenditure side, a significant real decline is visible, except in government consumption.

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GDP Components

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Data weaker than the EU average

According to seasonally adjusted data, GDP fell by 14.9 percent in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, while on an annual basis it plummeted by 15.1 percent. These are weaker data compared to the European Union average. According to Eurostat data, in the second quarter, the EU economy fell by 11.7 percent compared to the previous quarter, while compared to the second quarter of last year, the decline was 14.1 percent.

The DZS stated in its report that circumstances related to the COVID-19 pandemic have affected the availability and reliability of data and information typically used for estimating quarterly GDP.

„Difficulties in measuring economic development, especially in the service sector, may lead to potentially larger revisions of quarterly GDP,” stated the DZS.

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