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HNB Analysis: Corona Measures Could Keep ‘Alive’ Companies That Were Already Doomed

The COVID-19 pandemic has halted the operations of nearly one-fifth of business entities, particularly within sectors where social distancing measures have the most negative impact. Therefore, in these sectors, there has been a decline in business activities and revenues of more than 90 percent in a short period, according to the analysis of the Croatian National Bank. 

The consequences of the COVID-19 crisis will be felt even after the pandemic ends due to the latent danger of reactivating the same or similar viruses, which will result in the necessary restructuring of business models for companies operating in sectors that require close contact with clients. Many companies have quickly adapted their business models by strengthening digitalization and relying on delivery channels to enable work and the sale of goods and services “remotely.”

In this process, some sectors have additionally profited (IT solution providers, courier services, etc.), and some small entrepreneurs have also fought for their place in the market in the newly created situation through joint appearances and solutions. Support has facilitated survival and adaptation of businesses in the short term. However, the longer-term provision of non-selective support could keep companies with unsustainable business models in the market, thus slowing the shift of resources towards healthy companies that should be the drivers of economic recovery. 

Who Applied for HZZ Support for Job Preservation

The crisis caused by the coronavirus has severely impacted the economy, especially sectors sensitive to social distancing measures. Nevertheless, the measures taken by the Government through the Croatian Employment Service (HZZ) support for job preservation in sectors affected by the coronavirus have significantly eased the burden of employee costs for these companies. HZZ data shows that more than 100,000 legal entities received support for March and April (of which more than 82,000 companies received support for both March and April) as part of the Job Preservation Program, with more than 90 percent expected to relate to micro-enterprises (companies with up to ten employees), which generally dominate in number within the business sector.

According to available data for March and April more than 3.8 billion kuna in support has been disbursed, covering more than 590,000 employees. Linking HZZ data on business entities that received support for March and April 2020 with data from the Financial Agency for 2018 shows that two-fifths of all companies from the Fina database utilized support, with this share being 36 percent, 64 percent, 62 percent, and 55 percent for micro, small, medium, and large enterprises.

They Do Not Have Bank Credit

Regarding activities, funds were more utilized in service sectors that require a higher degree of social contact since these sectors have been the most affected by anti-epidemic measures, as well as in the manufacturing sector, whose operations depend on the supply of raw materials and components, as well as uncertainty regarding orders and relatively low possibilities for organizing remote work. Most companies that are support recipients do not have credit obligations with banks since banks are exposed to less than 20 percent of the companies that utilized this measure. However, the exposure of banks to these companies is significant. Companies that utilized support accounted for nearly two-thirds of all corporate clients of banks at the end of March and accounted for about 58 percent of all loans to non-financial enterprises, or 18 percent of total bank loans. The exposure is expected to be dominated by service sectors, manufacturing industry, and business services.

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Rate of approved measures by activity and size
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The exposure of banks to companies that are support recipients varies among groups of banks, reflecting the diversification of their credit portfolios. Thus, at the end of March 2020, companies that utilized support accounted for 17 percent of total loans at systemically important banks and 24 percent at other credit institutions, which is consistent with the higher share of companies in the portfolios of smaller banks. For these groups of banks, clients who utilized support contribute 24 percent and 42 percent of total interest income from given loans, which is significantly higher than their shares in the portfolio, resulting from higher interest rates in the corporate sector compared to other bank clients.

To econometrically examine which variables are associated with a higher likelihood of utilizing support, a probit econometric method was used, where 1 indicates a company that utilizes support, and 0 indicates companies that do not utilize support. Two rank variables were used as independent variables: size (from 1 to 4 for micro, small, medium, and large enterprises) and the estimated necessary social contact for performing activities (from 1 to 7, where 1 indicates the least necessary contact). Additionally, company-specific variables describing: margin, profitability, financing structure, and liquidity were used, obtained from the Fina database for 2018.

Probability of Utilizing Support

The results confirm that compared to micro enterprises and with unchanged other variables, the probability of utilizing support is 14 percent and 12 percent higher for small and medium enterprises, while there is no significant difference for large enterprises. Regarding activities ranked by the necessary social contact, compared to agriculture, the probability of utilizing support is 21 percent, 23 percent and 30 percent higher for trade, manufacturing industry, and accommodation and food service activities with unchanged other variables. Regarding company-specific variables, their direction of movement is expected, so companies with: lower margins, lower profitability, less capital, a higher share of financing from creditors, and less cash have a higher probability of applying.

The results of the econometric model reflect the nature of the crisis that has affected the non-financial enterprise sector and the rules for seeking support. Regarding the size of the enterprise, smaller enterprises are also the most flexible in terms of labor. Service activities (accommodation, food preparation and serving, and trade), due to the necessary physical contact with clients, have been the most affected by the cessation of operations due to the implementation of epidemiological measures. Besides these activities, the manufacturing industry is also significantly exposed to the impact of the pandemic due to dependence on the supply of raw materials and components, as well as uncertainty regarding orders and relatively low possibilities for organizing remote work. Furthermore, belonging to a specific activity indirectly describes labor intensity as well as the share of fixed costs.

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