Home / Finance / Without public attention, the HNB increased foreign exchange reserves

Without public attention, the HNB increased foreign exchange reserves

Boris Vujčić
Boris Vujčić

Almost without public attention, the Croatian National Bank (HNB) increased its foreign exchange reserves by about two billion euros in mid-June, bringing them to approximately 17.8 billion euros.

The recent increase in international reserves, as explained by the HNB in response to a query from Lider, was primarily the result of the purchase of foreign currency from the state in June, which was mostly related to the inflow of foreign currency based on the foreign issuance of government bonds in the international market in the same month. In June, the HNB purchased almost one and a half billion euros from the state, thus creating 11.2 billion kuna needed to finance domestic fiscal needs. In addition to the purchase of foreign currency from the state, the increase in reserves was also contributed by a slightly higher level of contracted repo transactions with international reserves, noted our central bank.

This data is explained by Goran Šaravanja, an economic analyst at Imelum. In other words, after issuing two billion euros worth of eurobonds with a maturity of eleven years, the Ministry of Finance sold a larger portion of that money to the Croatian National Bank and purchased kuna from it to fulfill its budgetary obligations.

– This maintained exchange rate stability because purchasing such a large amount of kuna on the market would have caused pronounced appreciation pressures on the kuna. This is, in fact, another example of quality cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank – emphasizes Šaravanja.

Due to the coronavirus crisis and increased demand for foreign currency, which lasted for three consecutive months, foreign exchange reserves were depleting because the HNB released about two and a half billion euros into the foreign exchange market in March this year to preserve the exchange rate and prevent panic, which reduced reserves from 18.6 billion euros, which they were at the beginning of the year, to 15.7 billion euros, which they were at the end of May, or 15.2 percent less than in the same month last year.

However, the HNB emphasizes that, despite the reduction in international reserves resulting from the central bank’s interventions due to strengthening depreciation pressures on the domestic currency during March, the adequacy of Croatian reserves for further maintaining exchange rate stability is not in question, thanks to sufficient accumulation before the outbreak of the pandemic. Thus, at the end of 2019, foreign exchange reserves covered 7.9 months of goods and services imports achieved in the previous year and more than 40 percent of total liquid assets. They also covered more than the entire debt maturing in the next year and were within the recommended range of 100 to 150 percent of the IMF’s criteria for the adequacy of international reserves. Additionally, in April, an agreement was reached with the European Central Bank to establish a currency swap line, which is also available to us.

– Currency swaps play an important role when financing markets in one currency deteriorate because banks outside that currency area find it difficult to finance their assets indexed to that currency as they do not have direct access to the foreign central bank that issues that currency – explains Zrinka Živković Matijević, chief analyst at Raiffeisen Bank, adding that the HNB, thanks to the swap agreement with the ECB, can provide banks with the necessary liquidity in euros without using international reserves.

Foreign exchange reserves decreased precisely due to the central bank’s intervention to prevent pressures on the exchange rate. The Croatian central bank follows a policy of so-called managed floating exchange rates. This is an exchange rate regime in which the kuna’s exchange rate against the euro is not fixed but reflects movements in the foreign exchange market, with the HNB discretionarily and occasionally intervening in the foreign exchange market when it assesses that the exchange rate is already fluctuating excessively or that it is possible for this to happen, explain HNB economists. When exchange rate fluctuations in either direction are pronounced, the HNB mitigates pressures through interventions by strengthening or weakening the domestic currency, i.e., conducting appreciation or depreciation, which occur due to short-term and temporary increased demand for euros or kunas in the domestic market.

Economic expert and professor at the Faculty of Economics in Zagreb, Prof. Dr. Sc. Ljubo Jurčić emphasizes that changes in the level of foreign exchange reserves are common, but he does not agree with the central bank’s moves.

– In June, the HNB purchased euros from the Ministry of Finance for which the Ministry borrowed abroad and paid the HNB about 11 billion kuna to be able to meet its domestic fiscal obligations. This purchase of foreign currency increased foreign exchange reserves, but they were already more than sufficient for the stability of the exchange rate and Croatia’s international financial obligations according to all criteria, so I believe this was unnecessary. Moreover, if there were kuna for the purchase of foreign currency, why couldn’t a transaction be made for the same kuna that would allow the Ministry of Finance to borrow on the domestic market instead of abroad? – asks Jurčić, adding that Greece got into trouble not because of public debt but precisely because of debt to foreigners.

Goran Šaravanja does not share this view. In his opinion, monetary policy in Croatia has been consistent and credible for more than twenty-five years, and entering the eurozone after a period in ERM II with a stable exchange rate would be yet another confirmation of the HNB’s good decisions.

And to find out what is expected by the end of the year, and whether there is money to maintain exchange rate stability even if a second wave of the pandemic occurs, read in the digital and printed edition of Lider.

{embed_digitalno_izdanje}{/embed_digitalno_izdanje}