Miodrag Šajatović: Five Control Points for Plenković’s Appearance in the Parliament

What times have come! From time to time, readers of 'Ekonomalije' felt the need to convey that I was too lenient in criticizing the government in this or that commentary. Or that I could have been even harsher and demanded more radical economic moves. After last week’s 'Ekonomalije', where the main thesis was that Andrej Plenković, the winner of the parliamentary elections, in his second prime ministerial term needs to be a self-aware, innovative entrepreneurial prime minister, and not just a managerial prime minister executing directives from the headquarters (Brussels), I received several messages like: 'Come on, don't exaggerate!'

They came from the ranks of entrepreneurs and managers. Friends, regular readers of Lider, explain that they would like the new-old prime minister to present a coherent strategy for the country’s development, to surprise us with new industrial policies, and for increasing commodity exports to become his priority and mantra. But they think that this is completely impossible. They would be thrilled if the new HDZ government made at least some progress in horizontal measures of the quality of the state apparatus’s work. Or a more quality judiciary. If, for example, it reduced the number of rigged tenders by twenty percent and eased the proportions of crony capitalism by ten percent.

The Era of Small Expectations

From the perspective of individual businesses, and with long-standing disappointment in governments that have come and gone without implementing radical changes, even small horizontal shifts are a big deal. The time of small expectations has arrived. Successful entrepreneurs have managed to survive and develop in an extremely unfavorable climate thanks to their own abilities and the abilities of their employees. With a less hostile state administration (honor to exceptions!), lower corruption, and less tax burden, it would be easier and better for them. However, summed up, it still would not be enough for Croatia to stop lagging behind other transitional countries that are members of the European Union. For that, a so-called smart state interventionism is necessary, which recognizes opportunities, takes into account deglobalization, has a vision, and directs entrepreneurship in the desired direction.

In a few days, Plenković will present the work program for the new four-year mandate before the new assembly of the Parliament. This will be an opportunity to assess whether there are indications that we are getting an entrepreneurial prime minister, version 2.0 of the current managerial prime minister, or whether, unfortunately, it will turn out that we are getting the old story with endless tactical maneuvers, superficial changes, and avoidance of hot topics that could reduce electoral successes. Which elections? Well, the local ones. Here they come, knocking at the door. They will be next year.

Let’s see by what criteria we could evaluate how ready Plenković is for an upgrade based on the anticipated inaugural speech in the Parliament of a convincing winner of the parliamentary elections, for which he certainly deserves congratulations!
First, it will be interesting to see how much time he will dedicate to listing what has been accomplished in the first term. With great energy and concentration, Plenković could force most listeners to capitulate at the very beginning of each speech. If he reduces the enumeration of successes to a few sentences, now that he has won, it will be a positive signal.

'Come on, don't exaggerate!'

Second, we need to see if he will provide at least some traces of a SWOT analysis in his speech. Business people know what this is about. The simplest instrument for recognizing strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Honesty in describing weaknesses and threats is one of the prerequisites for a successful business venture. This also applies to a political venture. Unfortunately, in previous government action plans (the instrument closest to the country’s development document), weaknesses have always been of an external nature. In a hundred pages of announcements compiled by ministries about what is planned, there is no mention that corruption, rigging of public tenders, and poor personnel policy due to hiring the suitable rather than the capable exist in Croatia. If the only threat is the coronavirus pandemic, and everything weak that existed before it is ignored – nothing from Plenković 2.0.

Third, we need to see if the government program will finally start to specify numerically expressed goals (KPIs). Fourth, will the mandate holder again mention the ‘triangle of success’ (balanced finances, reforms, and attracting investments), or will he come up with at least one unexpected innovation? And fifth, most importantly, will everything boil down to meeting the conditions that the EC will set as a prerequisite for obtaining those famous ten billion euros in aid to overcome the recession triggered by the coronavirus crisis.

If everything remains the same in the inaugural speech, well-meaning critics who tell the columnist calling for an entrepreneurial prime minister are right: 'Come on, don't exaggerate!'

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