Višnja Starešina: Plenković’s Biggest Problem in the Second Term – Plenković from the First Term

Andrej Plenković can now truly do whatever he wants. At least when it comes to forming a ruling majority and implementing his ideas in leading the Government and managing the state. The balance of power in the Parliament is such that he no longer has to seek or buy votes. They have rushed to him on their own, even on the first election night, so that by the next day he already had enough (76), mostly the votes of his old and (un)faithful minority partners from the previous government, who in the meantime openly flirted with Bernardić, the hand of the eternal Radimir Čačić, who quickly severed his coalition ties with the failed Bernardić by rushing to Plenković first, the hand of the poor HNS’s Predrag Štromar Without a Party who has nowhere to go…

In the coming days, more hands will arrive on offer. He can practically form an HDZ government without partner conditions or blackmail. Previously, he achieved complete control over the HDZ in the internal party elections. But this absolute power also carries absolute responsibility in times that will surely be crisis-ridden and dramatic.

Economic Corona Abyss

Plenković’s new term begins with an economic abyss following the corona crisis, which will surely spread in the autumn as a global, European, and of course Croatian crisis. It will be accompanied by uncertainty about the continuation of the epidemic and fear of its connection with the flu in the winter period.

If a vaccine against the coronavirus is not found by the beginning of next year, it could cause a new economic collapse. Concurrently or together with this global, European, and Croatian crisis comes a politically uncertain future. The West is going through the greatest political crisis since World War II. The USA, which we have been accustomed to seeing as the leading world power, is destabilized by internal open ideological-racial conflicts just months before the presidential elections (Trump or Biden), which largely depend on the further political direction not only of the USA but also of the world order.

The EU, which has become blocked and fragmented with the onset of the corona crisis, is trying under German leadership (and now also formal presidency) to find some common and more efficient response to the crisis, without which its further future is questionable. Politically monolithic China and Russia are seeking their space for expanding influence on the West in this crisis. This is the broader context of Plenković’s new mandate. It will be a mandate for survival in which ideological and worldview issues that dominated the Croatian political arena in the previous mandate will, by force of circumstance, be pushed into the background.

In this battle for survival, Croatia has its aggravating circumstances, but also advantages and opportunities. The biggest advantage is sharing this crisis with the EU, rather than with unfinished neighboring Balkan states. This is also an opportunity for Croatia to integrate more deeply economically and culturally into the EU, no matter how the EU changes, as the policies of enlargement or some smoldering dreams of post-Yugoslav integration will not be on the agenda in the next period. Another advantage is that Croatia is so small that even if it sinks deeply into the crisis, with a little European help, it can stay afloat.

Gordian Clientelist Knot

An aggravating circumstance is that the Croatian state is so expensive, that the Croatian economy is too tied to doing business with the state, and that, supported by a corrupt judiciary, it creates a Gordian clientelist knot due to which Croatia will either not be able to receive European aid at all or will not be able to productively use it for development.

The opportunity lies in the fact that Plenković must initiate genuine changes in public administration and real cuts in the clientelist Gordian knot in his new mandate – because he will have no other option. Plenković has both advantages and disadvantages for the challenges in the new mandate. His knowledge of how the EU functions is certainly an advantage, as is his good networking and the fact that he is liked by two key ladies of the EU: Angela Merkel and Ursula von der Leyen. Another advantage is that he has four years of experience at the head of the Government and a very stressful experience in responding to the corona pandemic, which he managed very well, as well as the experience of the Zagreb earthquake, to which he has so far postponed his response, but it awaits him just around the corner.

The biggest problem for Plenković from the second term could be Plenković from the first term, the one who feels the need to assert his dominance over both allies and opponents at every step. Plenković who can defeat anyone cannot respond to the challenge of the second term. He could respond to the challenge as Plenković who has defeated himself, who gathers and whom the majority will follow. Acknowledging his own mistakes in the victorious post-election speech seems to be the first step in that direction. 

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