An Enormous Wheat Harvest is Expected in America

In the global grain market, there have been no significant changes or surprises in the past two weeks. Only the price of wheat on the CME has recorded a decline of 8 USD/t due to harvest pressure. An enormous wheat harvest is expected in America, but lower protein levels are anticipated, which will automatically reflect on the price. The lower the protein percentage,  the lower the price will be! At the same time, premiums for Hard Red Winter wheat could significantly increase.

Corn prices have remained unchanged since the last report. Although rains in some areas of America have well-soaked the soil, they have not jeopardized the crops, and thus the market has not reacted. Dry and hot weather is expected in the upcoming period.

Higher corn prices in America could lead to a reduction in import duties by the EU for corn. The current  duties amount to 10.40€/mt and could be reduced by as much as 50%. EU duties  increase costs for end-users in Europe. According to estimates  around 18 million mt of corn is expected to be imported. Tariffs have almost no effect on the quantity that the EU imports.

The soybean meal market is calm, but there are rumors that China will resume purchasing American soybeans because Brazil is nearing the end of its quantities until the new harvest.

Fishing in Peru is proceeding well, with the catch currently at 1.4 million tons, while there are still millions of tons left to fill the quota. Fishmeal production is around 310,000 mt and 47,000 mt of fish oil.

Fishmeal prices have fallen by 50 USD/mt, and although buyers from Europe are active, the contracted quantities are currently small. China is still calculating and observing what is happening in the market. According to MSI Ceres, the most suitable time for loading fishmeal for the Chinese is July or possibly August, so we will need to wait a little longer for the market to awaken.

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