Miodrag Šajatović: HDZ’s Election Program – Compromising State Interventionism

About 90 years ago, attracting voters before elections was simpler than today. And voters were wiser than today. Before World War II, party agitators went to Slavonian villages and offered tied trade. Votes were, among other things, bought for skirts or scarves. Today, undecided voters must settle for intangible things. Political parties’ economic programs are full of promises that, in most cases, are clearly unachievable. And if something is formally achieved by chance, there is a high probability that the specific voter will indirectly pay much more than they will benefit.

Empty Numbers

After the SDP released its election program, HDZ’s response was eagerly awaited. This is especially true as it is currently possible to conclude that HDZ, in coalition with Škoro’s party, may be in a position to form a government after the elections on July 5. With the note that due to earlier deadlines for the completion of this Leader, it was not possible to review all hundred pages of HDZ’s election work, it can still be concluded that it is a disappointment. The progress compared to previous elections is that the election spin doctors realized that the ‘situation is intensifying’ and that the masses need to be offered, if not skirts and scarves, then at least some attractive, seemingly achievable numbers.

Thus, HDZ president Andrej Plenković came out with a bundle of promises regarding an average salary of 7,600 kuna, a reduction of some taxes by minor percentages, five billion for the modernization of education, ten billion in incentives for the creation of 100,000 jobs, a 30 percent increase in agricultural production, 30 billion kuna for regional development, and 350 million kuna for creative industries. And as the icing on the cake, a reduction in the number of ministries was announced (after SDP announced it as well).
Election programs in Croatia are very important for the fate of the country, especially the economy. On one hand, it is usually a pile of hastily gathered messages for certain voter groups.

In the case of HDZ’s program, it is evident that ministers were tasked with coming up with a few promises from their ministries’ areas, and then it turned into 100 pages, so a shorter version was selected for each. The damage would not be too great if serious parties like HDZ and SDP had well-founded real economic programs in the background over the past few years. But they do not. And they will not have them. Thus, in peacetime, they try to achieve what was announced in ‘wartime’ election time, in panic, to maximize the number of votes.

The goal of HDZ’s bombardment of the public with a pile of numerical promises (which was previously avoided) is, among other things, that the trees cannot be seen for the forest. Okay, a bottom-up approach is possible. But there is a lack of an answer to what the result will be if the promised is achieved. And that in comparison with other countries. There are no promises, for example, that all these efforts will achieve such GDP growth that Croatia will finally start achieving better results than, say, the average of the former Eastern Bloc countries.

Return to the Triangle of Success?

There is also no answer to what structure of the national economy HDZ guarantees at the end of a possible second term. While there was panic from the corona, everyone swore that the share of industry should be increased compared to tourism. Now measures are being announced to stimulate tourism growth. There is nothing heard about meaningful measures to strengthen export-oriented industry. In the gathering of proposals, someone just thought it was convenient to highlight assistance in the development of video game production!

HDZ’s election program is full of examples of state intervention. When the smokescreens are removed, it shows that it actually relies on funds from EU funds. State intervention is a necessary complement to the activities of the so-called free market. But with state interventionism, one must know. The national economy, which is under the impact of foreign protection measures for foreign companies both at home and in exports, needs smart state intervention. What is being offered is a compromise of the idea. Everything is headless and tailless. Without any quality and articulated vision.

As things stand, if Plenković becomes the new prime minister, one should expect that the numerical promises will be pushed into oblivion and that he will again sell the unmotivating story of the ‘triangle of success’. I am surprised if you do not remember what it is about! You know the one about ‘fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and encouraging investment’.

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