Miodrag Šajatović: Waiting for the First Rain After the Assumption

At the end of March, when uncertainty about the duration and extent of the coronavirus infection was growing, when the ground in Zagreb was still shaking after the devastating earthquake, when business life was frozen by the decision of the crisis staff, and when a ban on movement outside the place of residence was imposed, I remembered an old self-help psychological method. I was twenty-five years old when I experienced a severe shock due to going to serve my military duty. Trying to count down 360 days until 'getting out' was quite demotivating.

Fortunately, older soldiers gave advice: 'Take some shorter deadlines. For example, count down to the right to go out in the city for the first time.' I followed the advice, and it helped. Somewhat. So this year, in 2020, at the most hopeless time of the combination of corona and earthquake, I decided to count down from sixty days downwards. And again, at least a little, it worked. The countdown started at the end of March and, here it is, finished this week. When the number of new infections is minimal and when the last bans on economic activities are lifted. We are adults, so we understand that economic troubles are just beginning. A return to normal is expected only in a year or more. Until then, even if there is no new wave of COVID-19, it will be 'hold your pants'. So the question arises of how many days to take for a new stage of counting down.

Deceptions and Delays

I was helped by a chance encounter with a proven poly-economically insightful expert. His brilliant thesis is: 'The first rain after the Assumption will be pivotal.'

It would seem that we should count down to July 5, when the elections for the Parliament are held. But it is very likely that there will be no absolute winner and that at least a month of attempts to form a coalition for a parliamentary majority will follow. Just enough time for the government to be formed in August, 'after the first rain after the Assumption'. Which will be pivotal due to the expected behavior of both consumer citizens and entrepreneurs offering goods and services. We are human beings, not robots. We love to escape from reality and enjoy a little after the crazy first part of 2020. And to postpone difficult decisions. Everyone who can will try to go to the sea. At least for ten days to forget what kind of autumn and winter await us. But after returning, when the first rain falls, a collision with reality follows.

When it comes to entrepreneurs, due to this government’s lack of courage to truly inject the necessary level of liquidity into business systems, many will exhaust their liquidity reserves by the end of August. Without new packages, delayed mass layoffs in the real sector will follow. Civil servants will remain unscathed and with a high unexpressed sense of solidarity for those from whose created added value they receive unchanged salaries. Without quality and boldly ambitious economic interventionism shaped into an emergency package of the new government, the number of victims will be much higher than necessary, and recovery in Croatia will take much longer than in other countries. It is naive and dangerous to expect that we just need to wait for the tourist rush in mid-2021 and everything will be great. It won't. Not by a long shot.

Election Folklore

Hints of the HDZ program 'for after the Assumption' do not seem convincing at all for now. The announcement of greater self-sufficiency in food and energy production is questionable (this is the introductory text in this issue of Lider). On the other hand, it turns out that the SDP has done nothing on the economic program for three years, so now, in a short time, Zvonimir Mršić (interview in this Lider) and Marko Rakar are trying to devise an election economic program. Which does not seem bad, has innovations and ambitions, but the question is whether this option, with the handicap of a poor image of the party leader, will have the opportunity to implement ideas. In the weak hope that the pre-election match will yield some innovative solutions, we have to 'enjoy' the usual pre-election folklore for the next month and a bit. With the media's favorite personnel stories, the dirty laundry is starting to be aired (the contract with the Hungarians for oil processing outside Croatia and heating up the story about the purchase of INA).

Anecdotes are being attempted to be covered up with the approach of 'at least one major arrest action per week'. But then one of the ministers loses their nerves and attacks a journalist revealing how they know what was written in a closed group on WhatsApp. Which, allegedly, is coordinated by a high state official. So more covering up is needed… It is surprising that Plenković's team so quickly gave up defending the ban on Sunday work. This topic is an indispensable part of political election folklore, and if no one heats it up again now, it will be sorely missed. Overall, due to the lack of inventiveness of most local political parties in devising quality economic solutions, reruns of pre-election competitions are likely.

Only the countdown to the first rain after the Assumption remains. I start from eighty days downwards. And you can do as you wish. If eighty days is too long a deadline for you, you can stick to the variant 'the next two weeks are crucial'.

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