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Economic Climate Index in Croatia Rises, Increased Employment Expected

U inicijativu za zapošljavanje tzv. NEET skupine (od engl Not in Employment, Education or Training) iz Hrvatske su uključene: Inicijativa mladih za ljudska prava, GTF – Inicijativa za održivi rast, ECHO – Udruga za promicanje aktivnog građanstva, SDEWES Centar, Razvojna agencija Grada Velika Gorica – VE-GO-RA, Cluster za eko-društvene inovacije i razvoj CEDRA
U inicijativu za zapošljavanje tzv. NEET skupine (od engl Not in Employment, Education or Training) iz Hrvatske su uključene: Inicijativa mladih za ljudska prava, GTF – Inicijativa za održivi rast, ECHO – Udruga za promicanje aktivnog građanstva, SDEWES Centar, Razvojna agencija Grada Velika Gorica – VE-GO-RA, Cluster za eko-društvene inovacije i razvoj CEDRA / Image by: foto

The Economic Climate Index (ESI) in Croatia rose by 6.7 points in May compared to the record low value from the previous month, reaching 79 points. However, it remains significantly below the long-term average of 100 points.

In April, it plummeted to the lowest level since the EC began publishing data for Croatia, as containment measures against the coronavirus epidemic were in effect from the first to the last day. These measures particularly affected sentiment in the service and retail sectors.

In May, the government began to ease restrictions, which encouraged business leaders across all sectors. The most significant improvement in sentiment was observed in the industry, reflected in a 9.7-point increase in the index. This was followed by the service and construction sectors, whose indices rose by 5.5 and 5.8 points, respectively. Consumers also expressed greater optimism, evident in a 4.5-point increase in the index. The most modest improvement was recorded in the retail sector, where the index rose by 3.8 points.

Business leaders also expect to increase hiring in the upcoming period, as indicated by a 9.5-point rise in the Employment Expectations Index (EEI) compared to the record low level in April, reaching 85.9 points.

Cautious Optimism in the EU and Eurozone 

Business leaders in the EU and eurozone were more cautious in expressing optimism, with increased optimism in the industry dampened by further deterioration in expectations in the service sector. The ESI in the EU rose by a modest 2.9 points compared to the record low value in April, reaching 66.7 points. In the eurozone, it increased by 2.6 points, to 67.5 points.

The industry in both the EU and eurozone showed the most pronounced optimism, with corresponding indices rising by five points. Consumer and business leader expectations in retail in the EU remained close to the record low level from April. The retail sector in the eurozone showed signs of optimism as consumer expectations improved significantly, reflected in a 3.2-point increase in the index compared to April. Sentiment in the construction sector further deteriorated in both the EU and eurozone, with corresponding indices falling by one and 1.3 points, respectively.

Expectations in the service sector plummeted in both areas to the lowest level since the EC began publishing reports, following a 4.8-point drop in the EU and a five-point drop in the eurozone. The service sector was hit hardest during the pandemic due to travel bans and the closure of hotels, restaurants, and cafes.

Business leaders in both areas expect to increase hiring in the upcoming period, leading to an 11.3-point rise in the EEI in both the EU and eurozone compared to April.

Among the leading economies in the eurozone, the German ESI rose by 3.2 points compared to April, while the Spanish ESI increased by 1.6 points. The French ESI was almost unchanged compared to April. The Italian ESI plummeted by 20.7 points.

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