How Temperature Rise Will Affect the African Economy

African cities, resources, and natural landscapes are already feeling the significant impact of climate change, but things will get worse. According to a recent study conducted by the consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, the African continent will face a major economic disaster caused by climate change over the next three decades. The rise in temperature will affect worker productivity, as well as a range of sectors including agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and the oil and gas industry, reports Quartz.

The temperature rise, combined with increased urbanization and a growing population, will also negatively impact the electricity infrastructure, as well as the rising demand for air conditioning. Between 2026 and 2045, companies on the continent will face significant operational costs arising from the increasing demand for energy and risks of power outages.

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West Africa will, according to the report, be the most vulnerable. Countries in that region, including Nigeria, have already faced a series of problems due to heavy rains and stormy weather, while low rainfall levels and the expansion of desert areas in other regions have caused an increase in unrest and murders.

In addition, key export components such as mining in Nigeria, fishing in Senegal, and cocoa cultivation in Ghana are threatened by heat stress that occurs when temperatures rise above 30 degrees Celsius. Considering the labor-intensive nature of mining and agriculture in West Africa, the impact of rising temperatures could affect about 11 percent of the total export value of the region.

Collaboration Between Authorities and the Real Sector Needed

As temperatures rise, Verisk points out, companies will experience an average of eight power outages, which will jeopardize supplies and diminish government efforts aimed at strengthening energy infrastructure. This will, consequently, worsen the electrification problem that this continent faces – more than 600 million people in Africa still lack access to electricity, with sub-Saharan Africa having the lowest household electrification rate in the world.

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Researchers warn that governments and the real sector will need to take concrete measures to reduce the financial costs of rising temperatures, which include developing off-grid renewable energy systems, economic diversification, and improving working conditions. However, low-income African countries struggle to mobilize such vast resources to combat a dire future.

Due to this fact, the authors of the study emphasize that the future impacts of rising heat stress on global export markets remain uncertain.