In the last ten days, politicians, riding the wave of optimism, are calling for reforms and a bright future due to the historic success of the Croatian national football team and 22 fiery gladiators. However, there is a significant difference between gladiators and politicians. Gladiators have only one goal – to fight for freedom, while politicians, as they say themselves – through skill to achieve the impossible, mostly for themselves, and less or nothing for others. But this is not an article about the Fiery Ones or politicians.
Expectations have always been the main driver of economic processes. Thus, on the wings of optimism, the economy can also be stimulated. But. There is always a ‘but’. It is possible, but not in Croatia. At least not now. If the fiery gladiators were to shape the future of Croatian football, everything would be possible.
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If economists were to shape the future of the Croatian economy, everything would be possible. But in both cases, the future is shaped by someone else, hence the painful cry of reality, not the pessimism of the author of this article (who supports Istra 1961 and believes that one day they will win the Croatian championship, which qualifies him as a champion of optimism).
Economics to Economists
What painful cry of reality is being referred to? The one you witness every day. What can we expect in a country where official cars are procured like on an assembly line, fiscal policy operates on the principle of pouring from the empty into the void, trial balloons are launched daily (the future of pension funds), activities that have been the backbone of the economy of Istria and Croatia for centuries (Uljanik) are replaced by tables and umbrellas, the least in the EU is invested in education and even less in research and development?
We can only achieve growth and a bright economic future by establishing an economic council, entrusting economic policy to economic experts, and forcing politicians to place people at the center of their strategies, not their personal interests.
Frequent comments on forums suggest that economists have brought us to where we are today, that they cannot even predict the weather, let alone GDP, that they are freeloaders and that there are too many of them. The reality is quite different. Economists did not bring us to the situation we are in today (at least not those who have not sold themselves to politicians and lobbyists). The day an economic council is formed in Croatia, consisting of the best economists who are not party members, we will be able to talk about optimism. Are there too many economists?
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It would be an interesting scientific paper (if it could be written and if the data were publicly available) to determine how many economists are actually employed in the tens of thousands of job postings that stated that economic expertise was required, while veterinarians, dentists, kinesiologists, lawyers, technicians… were employed according to the orders of politicians in local government units and at the national level. Economists today know a lot about economic growth. We know that in the long run it is determined by innovation and technological progress.
Three Conditions for Growth
Do you remember innovation and technological progress in Croatia at the end of the 80s and during the 90s? No, because there were none, and technological progress was negative. Economic growth does not happen by chance. Three things are needed – institutions, technological progress, and optimism. We lack two out of three, and therefore we will find it difficult to harness the positive charge of optimism. Yet, we citizens are to blame for this because we will never show the unity in national, strategic economic issues as we do in football.
Economic growth does not happen by chance. Three things are needed – institutions, technological progress, and optimism. We lack two out of three, and therefore we will find it difficult to harness the positive charge of optimism.
If we dream of winning the World Cup, why can’t we understand that economic growth and a bright economic future can only be achieved by establishing an economic council, entrusting the management of economic policy to economic experts, and forcing politicians to accept that they must place people at the center of their strategies, not personal interests. Even the great Plato long ago raised his hands in despair at trying to educate politicians about the real needs of the people and society.
What future can Croatia have under such conditions? According to calculations by The Economist (Intelligence Unit), the expected average real annual GDP growth rate for Croatia from 2020 to 2050 will be 1.63 percent (by decades – 1.98 percent, then 1.55 percent, and 1.39 percent). If we know what standard of living we have today with a growth rate of about 2.8 percent (with high unemployment, indebtedness, and blocked citizens), what can we expect with a growth rate of 1.63 percent? You don’t need an economist to calculate how we will live.
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The Fiery Ones have given us the opportunity to see the future in a different way, as we all like to imagine it. We can achieve the same dignified future in social standards, caring for the sick, students, and pupils, but only when we show the same unity in economic matters in Croatia as we do in the case of the Fiery Ones. The dream does exist; we just need to reach for it together.
Author: Marinko Škare
