‘Mortality Plateau’: Death Risk Slows After Age 105

Has the maximum human lifespan been reached? Perhaps not yet, say the results of a study conducted on Italian centenarians.

In science, there has long been debate about whether the human lifespan has peaked. According to a study published in Nature in 2016, the human lifespan peaked in 1997 when Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment died at the age of 122. However, a new article published in Science suggests the possibility of extending human lifespan. The authors believe that the lifespan of the human species is becoming longer over time.

Scientists, based on data collected from 3,800 centenarians in Italy, have shown that the risk of death slows down after the age of 105.

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“As we age, our health deteriorates, and the risk of death increases. However, in extreme years, this trend stops,” states study co-author Kenneth Wachter, a professor of statistics at the University of California, Berkeley.

“It doesn’t get better, of course, but the risks stop rising. They level off. This is called the mortality plateau,” Wachter told AFP.

Researchers analyzed data collected from all residents of Italy who were 105 years or older between 2009 and 2015, encompassing 3,836 individuals.

By studying the mortality rates of people of the same age, scientists discovered that over time there is a slight decline in the mortality rate. This implies that, as time passes, people live longer than those born before them.

“The slow but clear improvements we see over time in that plateau after age 105 give us hope that a predetermined lifespan limit does not exist,” explains Wachter.

Socioeconomic factors and better medical care could be factors in extending human lifespan.

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However, “similar mortality patterns in extreme years have also been observed in other species, suggesting common structural and evolutionary explanations,” the report states.

If the study’s results are confirmed by other studies, it could mean that the limit of human lifespan has yet to be reached. Life expectancy has been continuously rising globally since the 19th century, but there has been a slowdown in recent decades. However, people who live to extreme old age are rare. Since Jeanne Calment’s death, the general trend is that the oldest people in the world live to around 115 years.

Wachter believes that the results do not indicate a new potential lifespan limit.

“Our results do not say anything about the years beyond 113,” he told AFP.

“However, they provide hope that a better understanding of the relationship between genetic, medical, and behavioral factors could contribute to better health and survival for the oldest people in their eighties and nineties in 10 or 15 years.”