Last week I was on a business trip in Slavonia. I also stopped by Baranja. Today, the difference between Baranja and eastern Slavonia is very noticeable on the ground. When you drive through Slavonia, both eastern and less eastern, what particularly stands out are the deserted villages and the advertisements for houses for sale. Call 091…, 098…, 095…
When you enter the Baranja triangle, between the Drava, Danube, and the Hungarian border, in those more well-known village restaurants, even during the week, you need to reserve a table in advance if, for example, you want to get a table on the terrace. It is also evident in Baranja that it has lost about a decade of development due to war, occupation, integration… And there is a lack of people.
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The question is who will buy those deserted houses in Slavonia that are now being sold for a pittance: will it be Orbán’s Hungary, will Kurz’s Austria and the Czech Republic join him, thus giving us a revival of the K.u.K., or will Erdoğan’s Turkey be quicker, the Russians after the restructuring of Agrokor, or perhaps the USA?
However, while Slavonia is visibly emptying, Baranja is also demographically emptying, but it is also growing economically. Slowly. It is growing on the initiative, ideas, and entrepreneurship of people, focused on the simplest and naturally given: hospitality, tourism, agriculture… Katarina was traveling with me. She belongs to that first post-war generation; she is originally from Slavonia, grew up in Istria, politics does not interest her, or rather, she is only interested to the extent of who is less or more sympathetic to her. The earring in her nostril at first glance suggests an alternative view of the world, but Katarina is, in fact, very traditional and very rational. She is looking for her niche in the Croatian labor market, having chosen a specialist qualification in health services, one of those that are in demand today.
New Generation of Emigrants
Katarina is also a candidate for one of those famous buses to Munich, Stuttgart, Frankfurt, from which a new generation of Croatian emigrants is leaving to seek jobs and a better life in more developed EU countries, but unlike her boyfriend, she would rather not take that bus. Unless she is driven by – the third world war. That is currently her biggest political concern and political priority in googling: will the third world war really start and when, which she imagines dramatically and cinematically, with many rockets and planes? I did not tell her that while traveling through eastern Slavonia, we are actually driving through a tributary, the forecourt of that third world war that will change the image of this part of Europe, the beginning of which we may not notice immediately.
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The question is, who will buy those deserted houses in Slavonia that are now being sold for a pittance? Will that new owner bring life and some positive energy to the impoverished villages and towns? Could it perhaps be Orbán’s Hungary, which is already investing a lot in cultural activities, in sports, in what makes identity? Will Kurz’s Austria, the Czech Republic join him, thus giving us some revival of the spirit and economy of the former Austro-Hungarian Monarchy? Or will Erdoğan’s Turkey, as the leader of the Islamic world, be quicker and more successful in trade, and in ten years or less, we will have ‘resorts’ in Slavonia that we today ‘discover’ with astonishment throughout BiH?
‘Sandžak-Slavonija’
Croatia has actually lost the space east of the line Karlobag – Karlovac – Virovitica, which it defended in the war, allowing it to gradually decay and die. Just as it has lost control over the future restructuring of Agrokor. And it can no longer blame the Serbs for that.
Who will become the concessionaire of land in the Danube and Baranja, and thus the ‘owner’ of the Croatian border, after the restructuring of Agrokor? Will it be the Russians, as is presumed after the framework agreement, who will be inclined to allow their strategic allies, the Serbs, to achieve the goals of the SANU 2 Memorandum in peace? Or will perhaps that part of the border along the Danube be taken over by the USA, as a border towards the zone of Russian influence, which could mean greater Israeli investments (agriculture, high technologies) that would secure that area?
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Croatia has little influence on this. Namely, Croatia has actually lost the space east of the line Karlobag – Karlovac – Virovitica, which it defended in the war, allowing it to gradually decay and die. Just as it has lost control over the future restructuring of Agrokor. And it can no longer blame the Serbs for that. It lost it due to the wisdom and policies of its own political managers, but also the mentality and potential of the population. Namely, Baranja is under the same or similar political administration as the Danube. But it is still moving forward. It is evident that the historical legacy of direct connection with the Hungarian crown has left a mark on the mentality, on entrepreneurial activity. And the Danube and eastern Slavonia? The best thing that can happen to them at this moment is a good landlord who needs good tenants. Katarina will no longer return to Slavonia, but he could stop the buses to Germany. The alternative is an empty ‘Krajina’ that is decaying. Or perhaps a new ‘Sandžak-Slavonija’.
