Raul Castro is Leaving Only in Appearance, Retains Control Over the Communist Party

With Raul Castro’s formal departure from power, Cuba will turn a new, historic page in a week, although he will retain control over the Communist Party to guide his successor and maintain the unity of the Cuban ruling elite.

Since the 1959 revolution, Cuba has experienced only one transition at the top of power. That was in 2006 when Fidel Castro, overcome by illness, handed over the reins to his younger brother after more than 40 years in power.

Fidel Castro passed away ten years later, and now it is Raul’s (86) turn to pass the baton to a representative of a new generation, who will be elected by the National Assembly on April 19.

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Cuba will then experience “not only a generational change but also the inevitable end of the ‘Fidel at the helm’ model, which has been somewhat modified but not abandoned during his brother’s presidential term,” explains Cuban expert Arturo Lopez-Levy, a professor at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley.

Although the identity of the successor to the Castro brothers has not yet been confirmed, his pedigree cannot be compared to that of his illustrious predecessors.

Not a Castro, not a revolutionary, nor a soldier or party chief

For the first time in 60 years, the Cuban president will not bear the surname Castro, will not be part of the “historic” generation from the 1959 revolution, will not wear a military uniform, and will not concurrently hold the position of first secretary of the all-powerful Communist Party.

Everything indicates that the successor will be the current first vice president Miguel Diaz-Canel (57), the second man in the regime since 2013, a man from the system who bears little resemblance to American actor Richard Gere. He has been prepared for this.

“He is the youngest among high officials, has long-standing experience, has been the party leader in two provinces (…) and is well integrated into public life. Almost everyone thinks it will be him,” emphasized Cuban political scientist Esteban Morales.

Diaz-Canel, who lacks historical legitimacy, will be able to count on the support of Raul Castro, who is expected to remain at the helm of the Communist Party until 2021.

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In this key position, he will be able to control part of the old guard that is not inclined towards more ambitious reforms.

“Raul has the experience, leadership, and respect necessary to advise the government and make the party’s political work coherent when it comes to the changes that need to be implemented,” said Morales.

Less power in hand

The new president “will have much less power in his hands than Raul or Fidel Castro (…) He will have to share it with other high-ranking political and military officials,” believes Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at the University of Florida.

“He will need collective leadership open to discussions,” added Arturo Lopez-Levy.

In such a new organizational structure, several officials who have already proven themselves, such as Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez (60) or economic reform organizer Marino Murillo (57), could play an important role.

There is much speculation about Colonel Alejandro Castro, Raul Castro’s son, and his former son-in-law Luis Alberto Lopez-Callejas, president of the powerful Business Management Group controlled by the military. However, it is currently difficult to predict their role in the new president’s term.

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Experts believe that the future president is primarily expected to focus on economic plans and the implementation of reforms necessary to continue and deepen the timid opening towards the West that Raul Castro has pursued in recent years.

“This will not happen in two days,” said Morales, who does not expect “Diaz-Canel to immediately embark on a whole series of actions.”

“Few transitions in the history of Latin America and communist countries have been organized with such precision.” By 2021, “we will have to monitor the elite’s capacity to implement them,” added Lopez-Levy.