Home / Information / Miodrag Šajatović: Plenković, Bernardić and Petrov in Search of the ‘Holy Grail’

Miodrag Šajatović: Plenković, Bernardić and Petrov in Search of the ‘Holy Grail’

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković is very careful not to say anything wrong in public appearances. He is a master at answering a specific question with a series of sentences that, while not providing a direct answer, will be impossible to quote and subject to criticism. However, at the last government session, the Prime Minister stumbled into deep waters. Commenting on the slowdown in GDP growth in the last quarter of 2017, he stated that this slowdown ‘was not felt in the budget itself’.

>>>Plenković: GDP is slightly lower than expected, but it was not felt in the budget

Unintentionally, Plenković revealed that for this government, as well as for all previous ones, the most important aspect of the informal strategy and work program is still that the budget is filled and that there is money for salaries and other needs of the state apparatus. Moreover, he should know that the regular filling of the budget is most likely a consequence of a significant increase in the import of goods and services in the last quarter. VAT is paid promptly on imports, so, since this is the most lucrative tax for filling the state treasury, it is really not surprising that GDP is slowing down while the budget does not yet feel it.

When nothing helps…

Political parties in Croatia remember to draft a political-economic program a few months before elections. These days, a miracle is happening. SDP and Most, each in their own way and for their own reasons, are trying to put some kind of program on paper. And HDZ is awaiting a decision: to improve the existing one or to devise a new program.

The Prime Minister’s thoughtless-awkward-honest statement is yet another proof that HDZ and the coalition that enables it to govern the country have significant problems with the program. In fact, it does not exist. Today, the ruling party will say that they have a National Reform Program. The inability to implement the reforms recorded in it and the obvious slowdown in growth indicate that Plenković must make a decision that may be even more difficult than those related to Agrokor: he must assess whether to stick to the existing model or embark on devising a new one that would not end up with the variant ‘we accelerate reforms so that growth becomes slower’.

>>>Dalić: We are in the ‘year of reforms’

An additional reason for HDZ’s reflection on the model until the end of the mandate is the surprising occurrence that two parliamentary parties, SDP and Most, atypically for local conditions, are trying to devise political-economic programs without it being just a few months before elections. An optimist would say that political thinking in Croatia has finally matured to the point where a serious political party should have a program that is not merely a convenient pre-election one. A realist would, however, note that the election results in Italy, along with the strengthening of the Living Wall here, have panicked some party leaders. Thus, the logic is applied: ‘when nothing helps, let’s write some kind of program instead of just outsmarting each other in parliament and the media on a daily basis’. The approaches of SDP and Most to articulating the program are completely different. SDP starts from the general to the specific, while Most seems to be going from a dozen partial policies perhaps towards a program that will hold water as a whole. This Saturday, Bernardić’s SDP is expected to accept the foundations that Davorko Vidović has contemplated.

Desperate attempts

How vague the government’s program is was also shown by Prime Minister Plenković’s statement that GDP is indeed slowing down, but this is not felt in the budget. It turns out that it is good when imports grow. VAT is charged promptly on it, so the state treasury does not suffer.

The document is not yet available to the public, but from what has been presented, with a good-natured approach, it could be referred to as, as it was said in socialism when one wanted to be politically benevolent, ‘a good basis for refinement’. But if at the same time it is said that dependence on services should be reduced while tourism development is encouraged, then everything could be reduced to the already many times seen opportunists based on the approach – a little for everyone.

Most members are already touring Croatia with partial ideas. Here, the approach is in the style of gathering a dozen experts, each writing their ideas, and that’s it. There may be a lot of goodwill here, but without material on a hundred pages that has a head and a tail, everything could be reduced to a desperate attempt to catch votes.

>>>Commission: Reforms are stalled, Croatia is the weakest in fulfilling the measures it has announced itself

HDZ has the opportunity to devise a long-term program as part of the task from Brussels to shape the country’s development strategy until 2030. Unfortunately, the first signals are disappointing. As far as can be understood, the intention is first to write a vision for the country’s development, and only in the second phase to analyze where the world will be in the next ten years. Even if we were China, it would be wise to analyze first, and only then see what the vision could be.

Clearly, the coming months will be spent in attempts by Plenković, Bernardić, and Petrov to find the ‘holy grail’, that is, a turnaround program that would mobilize and be achievable. If my memory serves me well, in the last ten years, only three or four serious attempts have been made to put programmatic thoughts on paper. One attempt was the work of Martina Dalić during Sanader’s time, the second was the Kukuriku coalition program in 2011 (main authors: Slavko Linić, Mato Crkvenac, Dragan Kovačević, and Žarko Primorac), the third was the work of Marinko Škaro for the needs of Most’s entry into Orešković’s government. A new ‘competition’ is currently underway. Are there any heroes?