Poll: AfD Surpasses Social Democrats for the First Time, Becomes Germany’s Second Party

For the first time, the German populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surpassed the Social Democratic Party (SPD) according to a poll published on Monday, as the social democrats begin voting on whether to enter a coalition with Angela Merkel’s conservatives.

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According to a public opinion survey by the Insa institute for the Bild newspaper, AfD received 16 percent, which is 1 percentage point higher compared to previous surveys, thus becoming the second German party behind the Chancellor’s conservatives. SPD fell to 15.5 percent, which is 1 percentage point lower than previous surveys.

This poll was conducted on a sample of 2,040 people from February 16 to 19.

For several weeks now, the gap between AfD, which entered the Bundestag after the parliamentary elections on September 24, and the oldest German party, which is experiencing a crisis and a leadership battle, has been narrowing.

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The latest popularity data amplifies the problems of the SPD, whose numbers have been in free fall since it received 20.5 percent of the votes in the September elections, marking its worst result since 1949.

The conservative parties, the Chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally CSU, have risen by 2.5 points and now hold 32 percent, according to this poll.

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“The Union is now the only major people’s party” in the country, emphasized Insa director Hermann Binkert for Bild.

The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats together hold only 47.5 percent of the votes and do not have a majority in the lower house in the event of new elections.

The two movements are preparing to form a coalition government, provided they receive the green light from the SPD base.

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About 464,000 members of the party will begin voting by mail on Tuesday, with results expected on March 4. The free fall of the SPD could, according to polls, encourage them to support this new government, while rejection would likely lead to early elections and a disastrous result for the party.

Even over the weekend, the Forsa institute for private television channels RTL and n-tv indicated that the social democrats were leading ahead of AfD.