Independence of Catalonia: The Moment of Decision

Spain is approaching the unknown on Tuesday: a possible declaration of independence for Catalonia, one of the richest provinces in the country, with a potential separation from Madrid that could have far-reaching consequences concerning Europe.

Catalans, divided almost equally on the issue of secession, and the entire country have only one question in mind: will Carles Puigdemont, the separatist president, unilaterally declare the independence of his region as he threatens, procrastinate, or back down?

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A former journalist, 54 years old, a supporter of independence from a young age, must answer the question in a speech before the Catalan parliament at 6 PM during which he is expected to present the consequences of the self-determination referendum of October 1, which the Spanish constitutional court declared illegal.

According to several Spanish media outlets, Puigdemont spent all of Monday writing and revising his speech, surrounded by advisors, undoubtedly torn between supporters of undeniable departure and those who fear that the solution, independence, will ultimately be a worse evil than Madrid’s patronage.

The same word was used on Monday by the main employers’ association after six of the seven Catalan companies listed on the stock exchange decided to relocate their headquarters outside the region.

However, Puigdemont’s team encouraged him to persist, with a large protest planned near the parliament.

The future of a province as large as Belgium, with 7.5 million inhabitants, as well as the fate of the entire country, will be decided on Tuesday evening during the speech, under the concerned gaze of the rest of Europe, shaken by Brexit in 2016.

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The official agenda of the Catalan parliament session focuses on the “political situation” following the “referendum” in which Catalan separatists claim to have won with 90 percent of the votes and a turnout rate of 43 percent.

Carles Puigdemont could also choose a middle path, a “delayed declaration of independence”, or settle for a symbolic proclamation, emphasizing the urgency of dialogue, and activate a phased process to avoid losing face.

The last words on this topic come from a documentary aired on Sunday on Catalan public television in which Puigdemont repeats that, in the absence of mediation, supporters of independence will do “what we came to do”.

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In Madrid, the head of the conservative government, Mariano Rajoy, warned that in the event of a unilateral declaration of independence, he could demand the abolition of the province’s autonomy, a measure that has never been applied in this extremely decentralized parliamentary monarchy.

He has other instruments at his disposal, as he already took control of the province’s finances in September. He can also impose a softened state of emergency that would allow him to act by decree.