Croatian analysts believe that AfD will only show its true face

The Alternative for Germany, the surprise of the parliamentary elections there on Sunday, is still a party of unknown capacity and its possibilities will only become clear in the coming decade, Croatian analysts emphasized on Monday.

According to unofficial results of the German parliamentary elections held on Sunday, the coalition of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the Bavarian Christian Social Union won 33 percent of the votes, the Social Democrats 20.5 percent, the Alternative for Germany 12.6 percent, the liberal FDP 10.7, the Left 9.2, and the Greens 8.9 percent of the votes.

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The success of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which established itself as the third political force in the Sunday elections, was the main topic of all news programs and round tables on election night, as well as on Monday in the global media.

Angela Merkel’s conservatives won the largest number of votes individually in the Sunday elections, and she will begin her fourth term as Chancellor after them, but the result achieved is the worst for conservatives since World War II, and Merkel will likely be forced to enter a three-party coalition with the liberals from the FDP and the Greens, Reuters reports.

The Social Democrats, after the worst electoral result in post-war history on Sunday, ruled out the possibility of continuing the so-called grand coalition with the Christian Democrats and announced their departure into opposition.

– It remains a great enigma where AfD is heading because it has really diverse people – from conservatives to those who truly have a positive attitude towards National Socialism and are outside what is considered normal, democratic, and constitutional order in Germany, said political analyst Višeslav Raos from the Faculty of Political Science in Zagreb for Hina.

– It remains to be seen how they will adapt to working in parliament. They are currently in provincial parliaments, but it is different on the national scene, Raos emphasized, adding that the widespread claim that populists find it difficult to impose themselves in the long run because “they fizzle out and become part of the establishment,” does not exclude the scenario that AfD is not necessarily that kind of party.

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Speaking about the failure of the Social Democrats, Raos recalled that during the seventeen long years of former leader Gerhard Schroeder’s rule, they made a turn, abandoning many classic social democratic economic and social policies and shifting economically to the right, towards liberalism.

– This has been coming back to haunt them because Merkel continues that policy, and as the younger partner in Angela Merkel’s coalition, they have been able to criticize it less and less, and they have, of course, entered a crisis, Raos believes, concluding that it is now best for the SPD to go into opposition to recreate their clear profile.

He also emphasized that Merkel will have problems forming a coalition with the Greens and the liberals from the FDP because they are parties with very different views on economic policy and integration within the European Union.

Historian Tvrtko Jakovina pointed out that keeping in mind the overall trends in Europe, we cannot be completely surprised by AfD’s success, but considering what Germany was and what has happened there since the end of World War II, “these could be alarm bells,” which will “only reflect in the next ten years.”

– This is not yet a reason for panic as we would have if Marine Le Pen had won in France, but there are worrying trends indicating that Europe, or at least the most important European country, is changing, and that is not a good sign for anyone, especially not for German society, Jakovina said.

Despite this, he believes that based on the election results, we can assume that German society will have the maturity not to change dramatically for now, but also that AfD has room for further growth.

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– The refugee crisis, pressure on Europe from other parts of the world, whether it be the Mediterranean, the Middle East, or Asia, will not cease. From the history of humanity, we know that people have migrated, so this is a given variable that no borders or wires will change, Jakovina emphasized.

Europe can fight against this in a way symbolized by AfD, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, or the leader of the French National Front, Marine Le Pen, or through which countries will try to draw the best they have from it, such as retaining the workforce, which Angela Merkel wanted, the historian believes.

– Either we will have a peaceful concept or we will start to confront and raise wires that will not change anything, which I consider a very gloomy scenario, concluded Jakovina.