Operation Agrokor? Adris and Atlantic are united by a common interest, but not by targets

The story published by Jutarnji list has resonated strongly in the Croatian media and business environment, stating that Atlantic and Adris are negotiating the establishment of a consortium that will attempt to take over parts of Agrokor. While the story sounds logical, there are several gaps that make it ‘not hold water’.

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The story is logical primarily because there is not a single serious domestic company that is not currently considering the possibility of acquiring some valuable part of Agrokor for relatively little money. Both Adris and Atlantic certainly fit into this. What they have in common is that a significant amount of money remains ‘trapped’ in Agrokor, and their common interest is to have it returned. And at that point, their common interest roughly ends.

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Emil Tedsechi would certainly not miss the opportunity, if it arose, to take over Agrokor’s ice cream or water production. However, he is primarily interested in coffee, which brings Atlantic about one billion kuna annually, accounting for one-fifth of its revenue. Therefore, Agrokor’s companies are not his focus, but rather Franck, which has suddenly become a much more accessible target for acquisition than it was before, as a collateral victim of Agrokor’s financial collapse. Franck is (still) not for sale, but Atlantic would play very poorly if it exhausted its acquisition power before the opportunity to acquire Franck arises.

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Ante Vlahović is in a completely different situation. It is not reliably known how much Adris’s money Ivica Todorić has borrowed, but the amount is estimated to be around 150 million euros. Too much to lose, too little for the acrobatics of converting claims in cash into claims ‘in kind’, especially when it comes to capital acquisitions like Ledo or Jamnica.

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When it comes to that, the starting price for Jamnica and Ledo will still be higher than that. There would still be enough money in Adris for investing in the acquisition of Agrokor’s companies, but it is uncertain whether other Adris shareholders would support this, without whose consent a decision on new investments in activities that Adris does not engage in cannot be made. Therefore, Vlahović needs partners who are in the same position as he is – having high claims against Agrokor, but also significant acquisition power. And in that regard, he is indeed unique.