The public annual report published by the Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA) for the period from June 2016 to the present shows that Croatia is not exempt from terrorist attacks or cyber threats, as its southeastern neighborhood continues to be marked by instability.
“The Republic of Croatia is not among the priority targets of Islamist terrorist groups. However, as with any other European country, the possibility of a terrorist attack on Croatian soil cannot be excluded,” states the report published by SOA on its website on Thursday.
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SOA states in the report that, as for the rest of Europe, terrorism linked to ISIL and Al Qaeda will remain one of the most significant threats to the security of Croatian citizens.
Terrorist groups continuously call on their supporters and members to carry out terrorist attacks on European soil, utilizing social media, promotional videos, and digital magazines due to their wide reach and low costs, SOA notes.
ISIL previously called on its supporters to come to Syria and engage in battles, while today it calls for independent terrorist attacks on European soil.
Such messages are, as explained in the report, the reason for a series of terrorist attacks in Europe committed by so-called lone wolves, i.e., individuals who were not directly connected to terrorist groups and are therefore very difficult to detect before committing a terrorist act.
It is expected that the trend of individual attacks will continue
SOA states that it can be expected that the trend of individual attacks will continue and be the dominant method of carrying out terrorist attacks.
Given the good reputation, position, and rights of the Muslim community, radical Islamism in Croatia has not met with a significant response. The number of followers of Salafism in Croatia is very small, consisting of several dozen individuals who do not call for violence, SOA notes.
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However, it warns that the existence of numerous radical Islamists in the countries of Croatia’s southeastern neighborhood increases the risk of a terrorist threat for the entire southeastern Europe.
From 2016 to the present, there have been no successfully executed terrorist attacks in the southeastern neighborhood, but police-security actions in several countries have prevented several planned attacks.
Since the beginning of the war in Syria and the establishment of ISIL, thousands of Europeans have joined its ranks, while nearly 1,000 individuals from the area of Croatia’s southeastern neighborhood have joined ISIL, mostly followers of jihadist Salafism.
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Due to ISIL’s defeats and significant territorial losses, an increase in the number of casualties is expected, as well as the return of fighters to their home countries, which will further increase the risk of terrorism in those countries.
In the area controlled by ISIL, a total of seven individuals who also hold Croatian citizenship have resided, of which six had dual citizenship, and currently, there are six in that area, SOA states, which continues to work on the case of the kidnapped and murdered Tomislav Salopek.
Instability generates a European belt of instability
According to the SOA report, security challenges continue to be generated by the belt of instability around Europe, which has numerous crisis hotspots, stretching from North Africa and the Middle East to Central Asia.
This situation is accompanied by mass migrations as well as threats in the form of terrorism, extremism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and regional armed conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Ukraine.
At the same time, the consequences of crisis hotspots are also reflected in the rise of organized crime and the smuggling of people, weapons, and goods, hybrid warfare, and radicalization through social media.
The relationship between Russia and the West resembles the Cold War
The report states that the relations between the Russian Federation and Western countries, which were disrupted after the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine in 2013, have not significantly improved, and in some elements, they resemble relations from the Cold War era. Tensions in relations are reflected in other areas, including the Croatian environment.
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Russia seeks to limit further expansion and influence of NATO and the EU towards Eastern Europe and strengthen its influence over Europe. Tensions in relations have resulted in Western sanctions against Russia and NATO’s strengthening of the collective military defense dimension. Ukraine is in a state of frozen conflict, and a political solution to the conflict remains uncertain despite international diplomatic efforts.
Terrorism remains a significant threat to Europe, with a moderate likelihood of attacks in the southeast
Although ISIL has been dominant in recent years with its reach and terrorist attacks, Al Qaeda remains active, especially in Africa, Yemen, and Central Asia (Pakistan), and continues to plan attacks on European and other Western targets.
Although a terrorist attack on Croatian soil is unlikely, its possibility cannot be excluded, states SOA. It adds that in the countries of Croatia’s southeastern neighborhood, which have numerous radical Islamist communities, the likelihood of attacks is moderate, while the likelihood of terrorist attacks in Western European countries remains high.
The mass influx of migrants into Europe has continued, although the influx through the so-called Balkan route has significantly decreased. Due to numerous causes, the migratory pressure towards Europe will continue, with the destinations for migrants primarily being developed countries in Western and Northern Europe.
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SOA also notes that the increasing reliance on modern information and communication technologies increases vulnerability to cyber threats.
For example, activities related to the use of the so-called dark web, where numerous criminal transactions occur using virtual currencies, are becoming more pronounced.
Climate change also has increasingly strong consequences for nature, the economy, and security.
The characteristics of the countries in the southeastern neighborhood continue to be weak institutions, internal political upheavals, numerous unresolved ethnic and national issues, insufficient economic growth, corruption, and unemployment.
Extremism remains limited and without public support
The activities of left and right extremists in Croatia continue to lack broad public support and have very little mobilizing potential. Given their small numbers and weak organization, the potential of members of extremist groups to incite violence and larger-scale incidents is, as in the previous period, limited, and their activities do not pose a significant threat to national security.
One of the phenomena influencing the strengthening of extremism across Europe is the large influx of migrants and refugees from predominantly Muslim societies into European countries, but in Croatia, no significant anti-immigrant or anti-Islamic extremism has been recorded.
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However, the further complicating of the refugee and migrant crisis increases the risk of rising extremism, especially as an extension of the emergence of such extremism in other European countries.
SOA also notes that extreme individuals exploit the dissatisfaction of some fan groups with the state of Croatian sports to incite incidents and riots during and outside sports competitions.
The phenomenon of certain fan groups from Serbian football clubs displaying anti-Croatian, Chetnik, and Greater Serbian symbols at sporting events has also continued, with participation from individuals who are Croatian citizens.
In a small part of the population of younger individuals of Serbian nationality, there has been a noticeable sympathy for Greater Serbian and Chetnik ideology and symbolism, especially on social media, which currently does not pose a threat to national security but disrupts the security situation at the local level.
Foreign intelligence activities aimed at regional relations
Intelligence activities towards Croatia have intensified in recent years, particularly following Croatia’s entry into NATO and the EU and increasingly complex geopolitical rivalries, during which false news is also disseminated.
Topics of interest for foreign intelligence activities in the Republic of Croatia include, among other things, processes occurring within NATO and the EU, Croatian positions regarding NATO and the EU, Croatian policy towards the southeastern neighborhood, energy security, and the Croatian economy.
“Foreign intelligence activities are also aimed at decision-making processes in the Republic of Croatia, which sometimes includes elements of hybrid action along with the dissemination of so-called ‘fake news’ in the public space and attempts to undermine the international reputation of the Republic of Croatia.”
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Certain foreign intelligence activities seek to exploit internal political processes concerning the protection of minority rights in Croatia for their interests.
As part of hybrid action, attempts are made to insert false or distorted news into the Croatian media and information space, portraying Croatia, the EU, and NATO in a negative light, and aiming to influence the stability of Croatian institutions, the regional environment, and Euro-Atlantic and European unity.
Croatia is also a target for attempts to collect data in cyberspace
SOA states that in 2016, at least seven attempts of cyber attacks of this type on protected information and communication systems of state bodies of the Republic of Croatia were detected.
Some media report that these attacks are attributed to China and Russia.
Cyber attacks can have serious consequences in the physical world, not only of a financial nature but can also endanger human lives, warns SOA.
Corruption remains a problem
Corruption is still a pronounced social problem that poses a threat to the legal order of the Republic of Croatia and the trust of citizens in democratic institutions.
SOA notes that particularly complex forms of corruption also have their international dimension, where individuals attempt to hide the trail of money through complex international transactions, and one of the ways of money laundering, as well as tax and customs evasion, occurs through business with offshore companies abroad.
There are also expressed cases of illegal extraction of money from legal entities, where part of the money obtained through criminal activities is attempted to be invested in legal businesses.
Organized crime poses a threat, with increasing organizational and technological complexity of criminal groups, whose cooperation is becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and trends of specialization among criminal groups are observed.
For example, the so-called Balkan route is the main route for the transport of heroin into Europe and is also very important for the delivery of marijuana. One of the three branches of the Balkan route passes through Croatian territory.
Croatian territory is, SOA notes, sometimes used for hiding in mutual settlements, and there are cases where these settlements have also been transferred to Croatian soil.
In recent years, there has been a noticeable trend that these criminal groups are taking a significant share in the smuggling of narcotics from South America to Europe, with good connections to local criminal groups and those operating in Western Europe.
A security threat to the Republic of Croatia also arises from the risk of using Croatian territory for the smuggling of weapons of mass destruction, dangerous substances, and dual-use goods and technologies. In September 2016, a foreign national was arrested at a border crossing for possession of radioactive material.
SOA has been active in investigating the origin and purpose of the radioactive material since the beginning of the case and reconstructing the events. The quick response and good inter-agency cooperation have shown the readiness of the Republic of Croatia to detect possible transport of radioactive material and other prohibited substances.
Energy security has a significant impact on European and national security
The EU’s dependence, and thus Croatia’s, on gas imports will continue, primarily due to the decline in domestic production from the depletion of sources, the gradual reduction of the share of coal in consumption, and potentially greater needs due to possible growth in industrial production.
Given the EU’s intentions for further diversification of sources and supply routes, as well as the integration of markets and promoting market principles in gas trading, Croatia’s geopolitical and transport position allows for inclusion in these efforts, i.e., in European natural gas flows.
One of the alternative sources and routes is the Southern Gas Corridor for the supply of Caspian gas. An alternative method is also the construction of an LNG terminal on Krk for the supply of liquefied gas by sea as part of broader efforts to strengthen energy security. In this way, the Republic of Croatia and neighboring countries would be supplied with natural gas, SOA states.
The EU encourages the connection of gas systems of Central and Southeastern European countries, which are exposed to risks of energy insecurity due to mutual disconnection and dependence on a single supply route, and these risks are further pronounced due to the situation in Ukraine.
In such an environment, in strengthening European energy security, gas pipeline projects on Croatian territory gain even more significance. In this context, Croatia is an active participant in the Three Seas Initiative, which encompasses EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe along the routes of the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Seas.
SOA Director Daniel Markić stated in his first report that they continuously provide the state leadership with the information necessary for the protection of national interests, and in 2016, they provided about 40% more such information than in 2015.
The international position and reputation we have built have allowed us to increase the number of information we receive from international exchanges fivefold in 2016 compared to 2013, states the SOA director.
