HDZ will not easily form a new majority

HNS will not support the reshuffling of the Government. IDS will not support the reshuffling of the Government. SDP will certainly not support the reshuffling of the Government. HDZ will certainly not easily form a new majority as Prime Minister Andrej Plenković gave the impression when he coldly asked the secretary at yesterday’s Government session to draft a document for the dismissal of three ministers from Most.

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What is certain at this moment is that HDZ will more easily and without any trouble gather enough signatures in the Parliament for the dismissal of the Speaker of the Parliament Božo Petrov, the leader of Most. How they will form a majority is another matter. Namely, political trading operates on the principle of every other trade ‘I give you, you give me’. And the basic rule is to give as little as possible to get as much as possible. So now the aces are in the hands of small parties with a few representatives or perhaps in the hands of representatives who flee from their camps to others based on the principle of ‘who gives more’, which is also one of the foundations of trading.

In such a constellation, one thing is completely clear: HDZ, along with its members who often and articulately express dissatisfaction with the decisions of the party leadership, will soon have to moderate the wishes, demands, or simply absurd requests of small souls from smaller parties of different political ideologies, so it can be concluded that the new government will be stable as long as they are satisfied. And one to two ministerial positions will certainly not buy that stability, as appetites are now growing at a crazy speed.

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On the other hand, the Prime Minister stated yesterday after the Government session that he already has the necessary majority, but by the evening, that determination melted away, so it would now be quite awkward for him to humbly admit that he messed things up and that elections are indeed on the way. Although they would certainly be a win for HDZ, especially with SDP as the main opposition party, an interesting twist would occur – Živi zid, a party that does not want to coalition with anyone, would profit the most. And then forming a parliamentary majority would be even more dangerous and very radical.