– The SDP did not take the election campaign seriously, entering it with an old program, with old candidates, and did not undertake anything new to attract voters. The decline in SDP’s popularity was also influenced by Milanović’s purging of dissenters from the party, which was especially felt in the VIII electoral district where some voters switched to the IDS, while the HDZ also benefited, starting the campaign from a very poor position and achieving better results during the campaign, commented the hot topic of the elections political scientist and professor at the Faculty of Law in Zagreb, Ivan Rimac.
HDZ is the relative winner of the extraordinary parliamentary elections with 61 mandates won. The People’s Coalition has 54
– I did not expect this result. Although there were indications that the polls would not accurately predict the outcome because they were conducted in the middle of summer when it is impossible to reach all citizens. It could be expected that there would be a greater reach of those who are at home by the phones, rather than those who are employed or on vacation.
Živi zid – the biggest surprise
For Professor Rimac, the biggest surprise of these elections is Živi zid, and he interprets their success as a result of MOST’s alignment with the radical right political option.
– It was expected that leftist voters who are not inclined to the SDP, burned by the poor outcome of voting for MOST, would return to the SDP. However, part of those votes spilled over to Živi zid, allowing that party to cross the electoral threshold in almost all districts. There are also negative surprises, especially the underperformance of the SDP and the People’s Coalition in the VI and VII electoral districts, says Rimac.
Grand coalition, future SDP leader, the departure of Branimir Glavaš?
Rimac considers the statement of the SDP president that they are available and the possibility of a “grand coalition” as an attempt by Zoran Milanović to maintain his position in the political scene.
– Milanović offered that coalition very cautiously; he did not want to propose it from the position of a loser, but rather as someone who has enough mandates. However, there is almost no chance for that coalition. They would have to make a whole series of compromises in which Plenković would lose the trust of his party and his voters.
After these elections, new changes will occur in the political scene. Before the elections, Tomislav Karamarko stepped down for the benefit of the party, and now it is Zoran Milanović’s turn.
– We will lose a politician who has been on the political scene for a long time. With Milanović’s departure, the SDP will revitalize, and last night, a statement from Branimir Glavaš went under the radar that he no longer sees the point in participating in politics. It is hard to say who will take the place of the SDP president; Zlatko Komadina has little chance after losing in the last voting performance, and Tonino Picula did not show enough determination in the last presidential elections. There will now be a certain panic in the SDP, Rimac assessed.
Forming a new Government – eyes on MOST
– The speed of forming a new Government depends on the character and behavior of Božo Petrov. The SDP has very little chance of achieving a parliamentary majority. This would only be possible if MOST unexpectedly and unreasonably embraced them, says our interlocutor. The HDZ is the only one in a position to form a majority, and it will be very comfortable with MOST if they can negotiate with Petrov. Then only a few mandates would remain to establish a majority, considering there are other candidates who would like to join that coalition. Without MOST, a coalition of the HDZ with others is also possible, but very unlikely because they would have to make agreements with minority representatives, Milan Bandić’s party, HDSSB, and Živi zid. In that case, the other parties would have significant leverage, which is not in the interest of the HDZ, commented Professor Rimac on the most likely combinations for forming the Government.
Whether an agreement will be reached within 30 days depends on whether the HDZ and MOST can find a realistic platform and not repeat the negotiation methods from the last elections. If it does repeat, then not only the HDZ but all of Croatia will be in trouble. If that happens, we will have a complete blockage of life. Such a scenario would provoke a reaction from voters because the third elections would be solely the fault of MOST, and that party would no longer be able to repeat its success, concluded Ivan Rimac.
