An Energy Crisis is Looming

If the world today consumes primary energy in the amount of about 11.5 billion tons of oil equivalent per year, and by 2035 the demand for energy will rise to about 18 billion tons of oil equivalent, the question is, says academic Mirko Zelić, president of the Scientific Council for Oil and Gas at the Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts (HAZU), from which sources all that energy would come.

– The question is whether renewable sources can achieve at least a 30 percent share in the world’s energy needs by that time. According to estimates by serious experts, fossil fuels will play an important role in this century. And given that the price of oil is currently very low, investments in concessions for hydrocarbon exploration have also been reduced, which will result in an energy crisis. How fortunate it would be if we could meet our energy needs with renewable sources, but that is currently impossible, and what we can do in the given circumstances is to seek a synthesis between fossil and renewable energies. Fusion energy could save us, but until it reaches commercial use, the world must ensure sufficient supplies of fossil fuels during the transition period, and the danger is whether we will have capable personnel for that if mass layoffs continue in oil companies, who will conduct research and ensure the safety of wells – asks academic Zelić.

Croatia, says Zelić, used to produce about three million tons of oil and two billion cubic meters of gas. At that time, there was a small difference between the consumption and production of primary energy, and today in Croatia we have twice the consumption of primary energy compared to its production. Zelić advocates for the injection of CO2 into oil reservoirs, which even enhances the viscosity of oil and its extraction. Renewable energy sources must therefore be viewed today as supplementary and welcome, but they cannot yet be the main element of global energy.

– At INA-Naftaplin, while drilling in search of oil and gas, we also found layers of drinking and geothermal water. According to current knowledge, we have 24 geothermal fields in Croatia. Of these, in eight or nine fields, the water temperature is above 100°C, which is favorable for cogeneration, and the question is how to capitalize on geothermal energy. In the Dinarides, the geothermal gradient ranges from 0.015 to 0.025°C per meter of depth, the average European geothermal gradient is about 0.03°C/m, and the Pannonian Basin has the highest geothermal gradient of 0.049°C/m. Specifically, INA-Naftaplin’s exploratory drilling has found the deposits of the most energetically potent geothermal water in Velika Ciglen near Bjelovar with a temperature of 175°C, Lunjkovec-Kutnjak has about 140°C, Ferdinandovac near Koprivnica has about 125°C, Babina Greda and Rečica near Karlovac also have wells with about 120°C. I was a member of the Government Council of the Republic of Croatia for Croats outside Croatia on behalf of HAZU, and when I told them that Turks, Italians, Norwegians, and Irish are coming to buy concessions on our geothermal fields, our rich diaspora was astonished and said: ‘Well, why is no one offering us those concessions to invest in the utilization of that geothermal energy in Croatia?’. They are good when they need to cast their votes in elections, but they are bypassed when it comes to business and investment opportunities – says Zelić.

An example of ‘sin of omission’ is the location Blato on the outskirts of Zagreb, where there is a geothermal field with water at a temperature of 82°C, which has a production well 1374 meters deep, and the injection well is 1134 meters deep. At one time, a project was initiated, a company was established, we tried, says Zelić, to motivate Mayor Milan Bandić, but the matter fell apart politically when the interests of the stakeholders of that project diverged. A pity, because it is a godsend that on the doorstep of a million-strong city you have such potential for geothermal energy and water. He remembers how Bandić enthusiastically said at the time that they would build the largest water park in Europe in Blato. He said: ‘We will build a bridge, we will provide a tram line, let our people swim and recreate’…

The geothermal potential in Blato is sufficiently abundant, claims academic Zelić, for the profitability of building a recreational and balneological complex, and since the reasonable use of geothermal water implies its cascading use, this also means the possibility of heating greenhouses for growing flowers and vegetables, and finally, when the temperature of that water decreases, it can simply be returned to the underground for reheating through a return well. Just for comparison, Budapest has as many as 10 spas and thermal resorts, most of which have been in operation for over 100 years.

According to data from the Energy Institute ‘Hrvoje Požar’, the total geothermal potential of the geothermal deposits explored so far in Croatia amounts to 45.8 MW of electrical and 812 MW of thermal energy. The thermal capacity of Croatian spas is about 77 MW, of which a total of 37 MW is in 16 spas and for heating two facilities. When it comes to electricity production, the first geothermal power plant with a capacity of 15 MW is being built in Velika Ciglen, and on April 11, a construction site for a ‘hybrid’ geothermal power plant with a capacity of 18.1 MW el and 89 MWt was opened in Draškovec in Međimurje, and this facility is expected to become the starting point for the development of a health and recreation complex, greenhouse production, and heating distribution. In media silence, a Turkish investor is sneaking in with a conceptual project for a geothermal power plant for Karlovac.

Given that the discoveries of these geothermal fields in Croatia were mostly collateral successes after unsuccessful drilling in search of oil and gas, Zelić believes that it is necessary to invest in further hydrocarbon research, and if another geothermal field is found in the process, there are new investment challenges, but also for the Croatian diaspora, asks academic Mirko Zelić.