Home / Business Scene / Vedran Antoljak: In certain niches, a competitive new industry can be created

Vedran Antoljak: In certain niches, a competitive new industry can be created

The business year 2016 will be a year of progress and growth for Croatian entrepreneurs, as I believe that after six years of continuous decline, the time has finally come for the economy to show its potential.

In this regard, it is crucial how the new government will direct its activities for the economy, as failing to create conditions for its growth will result in existing positive trends yielding only short-term effects, while we will simultaneously miss the opportunity for positioning for long-term and sustainable growth.

Turning Point
Entrepreneurs will remember 2015 as a turning point from stagnation to slight economic growth. This year, business conditions are somewhat more favorable than in previous years, primarily due to the effects of joining the European Union (its support programs) and a series of minor improvements aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship. Evidence of this is Croatia’s jump on the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking, despite the change in methodology. However, among entrepreneurs, there is still doubt as to whether the growth of GDP and industrial production in the last two quarters signifies a real recovery of the economy. Many believe that the growth is merely a reflection of an excellent tourist season and external factors such as falling oil prices, and they think that without serious structural reforms, conditions for long-term growth of the Croatian economy cannot be created. This specifically means that the Croatian legal and regulatory system is still insufficiently predictable and that it lags behind by about a decade compared to the systems found in developed economies and some more successful transitional countries. Such a situation is still too risky for attracting more investors, especially when we add many unpleasant experiences that investors have had in dealing with parts of the public administration and local government in recent years of doing business in Croatia.
The cause of Croatia’s insufficiently rapid adaptation to the demands of modern business lies in the gap between the needs of the private sector and the understanding of public administration on how to create an administrative environment for business in the 21st century. Although some ministries intensified the simplification of the regulatory framework in 2015, i.e., reducing administrative barriers in some areas, unfortunately, we are still witnessing a lack of interest from parts of relevant public administration bodies for real changes. Thus, throughout the year, we could witness unilateral and insufficiently thought-out regulatory ‘ad hoc’ solutions in some areas of the economy that, instead of following international trends of smart regulation, actually mean resorting to outdated solutions that leave too much room for interpretation, thereby diminishing the predictability of key segments of the economy, such as some aspects of tax policy. Furthermore, employers still spend a lot of time ensuring compliance with regulations, and there is much room for improvement in that regard. The government has estimated the potential for reducing business costs by twenty percent or more, so I believe that the new government will recognize this potential and intensify the reduction of administrative barriers for the economy. Therefore, the imperative of public administration should be to relieve the economy of unnecessary bureaucratic obstacles and reduce the unpredictability of the Croatian regulatory, judicial, and tax systems. Deregulation and self-regulation of many activities are just some ways to achieve this, but the main goal must aim to change the mentality of public administration from being the policeman of the socio-economic system to being a partner that, in collaboration with the private sector and the economy, brings a stimulating development policy, rather than preventing entrepreneurship, innovative business models, and thus progress through repression.

Establishing a Knowledge Economy
On a macroeconomic level, the projected annual growth of the economy of one to two percent is not sufficient to fully exploit our economic potentials and indicates that more serious socio-economic reforms are needed. However, it will not be easy for us to succeed in this, as public debt is expected to reach 93 percent by 2017, alongside a high deficit. I hope that economic policy will shift from outdated reindustrialization of existing sectors to the final establishment of the knowledge economy sector. Such a modern economy relies on service sectors that have recorded continuous growth in their share of Croatian GDP, exports in recent years, and future market demand. I am referring to a range of IT activities, professional and business services, and similar industries. Without such fundamental changes in the long-term direction of the Croatian economy, we will remain trapped in the industrial age, while those we like to compare ourselves to are already deeply entering the digital age driven by knowledge and services. Therefore, I hope that the new government will accept the fact that Croatia is not an industrial power and cannot become one, regardless of the billions of euros we have spent reviving failed industrial potentials. However, a new industry can be created in certain manufacturing niches that have proven to be competitive in Croatia and beyond in recent years. We need to systematically encourage such industrial niches through various tax and incentive measures for further development and export. It is also important to consider economic indicators that demonstrate how much service activities such as IT, professional, and business services have contributed to GDP growth and exports, which is why they represent a huge potential for the growth of the Croatian economy. We must immediately devote much greater attention to them than we have so far and ensure their support – primarily by removing administrative barriers, but also through support programs and tax incentives – which will enable them to grow in line with their potentials.
In conclusion, the goal of Sense Consulting in 2016 is to strengthen its position as the leading consulting firm in Croatia, particularly in the segment of national and EU support, regulatory reform, and innovation. In 2016, we plan to achieve revenue growth of over 30 percent, along with significant growth in profitability and exports, which we base on already contracted projects, further needs of the economy for management consulting services, and the effects of business optimization following the investment year of 2015. Sense Consulting currently employs 35 experienced consultants ready for new market challenges, and we soon plan to hire new staff, establish new partnerships, and expand our client base both domestically and internationally.