Our last hope is that the Americans stand behind the future, whatever government it may be

Predicting is difficult, especially the future. This statement (which seems to be from a collection of wise sayings by Grunf, the hero of the comic ‘Alan Ford’), as amusingly self-evident as it may seem, should not be forgotten. Especially in columns.

That is why there is a wise practice to slightly dilute the thesis in a column, especially when it relates to forecasting, with insertions in the style of: it seems, judging by everything, very likely… When this is forgotten, the column author can find themselves in an awkward situation.
In these ‘Economalies’, in the past few weeks, the assertion (without reservation) that in the end, Most will form a coalition with HDZ has been read several times. Since the SDP coalition returned to negotiations with Most of Independent Lists, and HDZ has ignored repeated calls to return to negotiations, it seemed that the forecast was completely off. However, over the announced agreement that Petrov would be the Prime Minister, and Milanović the Speaker of the Parliament, new uncertainties have emerged. And the latest news before the start of Lider’s rotation – about the cessation of negotiations between Milanović and Petrov – brings us closer to the possibility that President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović will call for new elections… So perhaps the miscalculation in assessing the future ruling coalition will not be complete.

What are powerful ambassadors doing? Armed with the reminder that predicting is difficult, especially the future, this week I am merely setting the elements for the neglected level of events on the Croatian political (and indirectly economic) scene. It would be very interesting if we could track the activities of the most important ambassadors accredited in Croatia. And their people. Many moves by Petrov, Milanović, Karamarko, and other current political players might be better explained, and then the overall post-election outcome could be predicted, if it were known whether there are discussions and what they are (direct or through intermediaries, it doesn’t matter) for example, with the American ambassador or the German ambassador with the main actors.
Especially interesting would be to follow the activities from the US embassy. Because here, in our autism and autarky, we often forget that the US is still the largest world power. Many in Croatia wave their hands at this remark. As if we are too small and unimportant. It may seem that way, but in the global circumstances of the ambitious Russian President Putin on one side and ISIS on the other, no country with such a geographical position is unimportant. And even without Putin and ISIS, the world leader has survived all these years because they take things seriously in any part of the world. Similar to how successful corporations care for every department, no matter how unimportant it may seem.

Controlling the winners When it comes to elections, informed sources claim that the tactic is actually very simple. The most important thing is that potential winners from the major parties are under control. So it doesn’t matter to the ‘world police’ who will win the elections. The future Prime Minister will have a certain freedom of movement, and if they escape control, there are developed tactics. It is enough to recall the sudden departure of Ivo Sanader on July 1, 2009, from the position of Prime Minister of Croatia. Someone from the outside forced him to do that.
In addition to political reasons, there are also economic reasons why the ‘international community’ would have reasons to influence political processes in Croatia. The general assessment is that Croatia, due to its increasing external debt and insufficient GDP growth rate, is a serious candidate to find itself on the brink of bankruptcy in 2017. The example of Greece shows how complicated it is to lead political processes after a collapse. In the end, international financiers broke Syriza, and in the government implementing punitive measures, there is a very right-wing political party alongside the left Syriza. So if a left-right coalition must be created in the end, why not direct the processes preventively? It does not seem entirely unbelievable that in the numerous twists (at this moment) a somewhat plausible alliance between SDP and Most is emerging… Of course, one could go a step further and glimpse the reason why foreign controllers would gladly see a tripartite government for a country facing a turbulent future.
I do not mean to say that Most of Independent Lists is an American or someone else’s project. It is more likely that it was established independently, with some domestic supporters, but when it won 19 mandates in the elections, it very likely became the subject of ‘processing’ by international power centers.
So this is what remains the last hope for this society, and within it for the business community. That there is someone above us who will direct these chaotic processes. That is what we have come to.