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‘Advent’ of the new Prime Minister

Turnaround after turnaround, change after change, twist after twist. Incredible statements and moments we witnessed during the negotiations for the formation of a three-party government have likely left many speechless.

In this way, we clearly saw how a government would be led and decisions made when formed in any combination and shape. HDZ cut through everything, assessing that things had gone too far. Just like during the attempt to form the Parliament when they did not support the SDP’s proposal for Robert Podolnjak from Most to become the President of the Parliament, no matter what was thought about the story that Zoran Milanović outsmarted Tomislav Karamarko this time. Such a move was supported by the HDZ leadership, while in the ranks of the SDP, they criticized Milanović’s twist and acceptance of all the conditions of Most. HDZ can still express its opinion on everything today, after which we could welcome the ‘advent’ of the new Prime Minister. After stories about changes that are most important and must be implemented, everything again boiled down to the division of chairs and their removal from rivals.    

The only event or rather ‘non-event’ that can be a worthy competitor to the political madness of last week is certainly the footage of the police arrest of an elderly lady who crossed the street in Osijek despite the traffic light being red. The police officer twisted the unfortunate woman’s arm, knocked her to the ground, and put handcuffs on her while she lay crying on the pavement, as if she were a hardened criminal. The footage is indeed hard to watch, as it is incredible how the police officer insists on the arrest and does not see that he is unnecessarily overstepping in enforcing the law. This is the same ailment as with judges when they literally adhere to the law, without any sense of the uniqueness of each case, as the legislator cannot foresee everything that can happen in the real world. Condemnations of the police officer’s actions came from everywhere, but so did support, which is truly surprising. Unfortunately, citizens themselves find it difficult to recognize that one cannot just robotically adhere to the letter of the law, but also its human meaning and spirit. The police officer later apologized to the lady, as did the Minister of the Interior Ranko Ostojić, who also paid her a fine appropriately.

The increase in exports and personal consumption will affect the recovery of the labor market in 2016, so the Croatian National Bank has raised its economic growth forecast to 1.8 percent from 1.5 percent. This year, GDP is expected to be 1.7 percent, which the HNB has also increased from 1.2 percent, and Boris Vujčić, the governor of the HNB, expects that the fourth quarter will bring a high GDP growth of 2.3 percent. He stated that we remain in a period of low interest rates from major global central banks, the European Central Bank will keep the interest rate unchanged, while the American Fed will start raising rates (which has already happened). This then affects the borrowing market, especially those emerging like the Croatian one. The HNB further expects a slight increase in employment and a continuation of the decrease in unemployment. The Economic Institute from Zagreb also predicts growth, but at lower percentages. This year we should grow by 1.5 percent, next year by 1.3 percent, and in 2017 again by 1.5 percent. The institute has also raised its previous growth expectations, and this year’s economic growth is influenced by increased household consumption, low fuel prices, and good tourist spending. Investments have also improved due to better utilization of funds from European Union funds and the beginning of the recovery of construction. According to the Economic Institute, the budget deficit could amount to 4.5 percent of GDP this year and should decrease to four and then to 3.5 percent of GDP in the next two years.

That good expectations for next year have a basis is confirmed by Eurostat data, according to which Croatia, along with Ireland and Cyprus, has remained at the forefront of countries with the largest jump in goods exports in the first ten months of this year compared to the same period last year. Croatian exports thus increased by 12 percent, Cypriot by 21, and Irish by 22 percent. Exports from Croatia to EU countries went up by 15 percent, only surpassed by the Irish at 22 percent. However, at the same time, total Croatian imports increased by six percent, with those from EU countries rising by nine percent.

In response to all this, Luka Burilović, the president of the Croatian Chamber of Commerce stated that it is evident that some things have started to move and that negative trends have been halted, but that such growth can hardly be called significant until it reaches three or four percent annually. He called for the government and Parliament to be formed as soon as possible because Croatia is neither Belgium nor Denmark to be without a government for a year or a year and a half. This is necessary due to urgent changes, and Jasna Belošević-Matić, head of the Department for Macroeconomic Analysis at the Chamber, stated that Croatia is still pressed by rising public debt, low competitiveness, poor public sector management, and poor employment indicators. She believes that all of this limits economic growth and that fiscal consolidation and structural changes need to be implemented.