Optimistic Expectations for the Croatian Economy in the Next Six Months

Expectations for the Croatian economy have significantly improved in December, while almost all other countries in the Central and Eastern European region recorded worse expectations than in the previous month, a survey by the German ZEW Institute and Austrian Erste Bank revealed on Thursday.

The index measuring financial market experts’ expectations for the Croatian economy over the next six months rose by 11.1 points in December compared to the previous month, reaching 25.9 points. This solidified its position in positive territory, indicating that optimistic expectations overwhelmingly prevail.

Among the countries in the Central and Eastern European region, only Romania recorded an increase in the index measuring economic expectations in December, albeit a significantly modest 4.2 points. The survey, alongside Croatia and Romania, also includes the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Turkey.

The most significant deterioration this month was observed in expectations for the Hungarian economy, reflected in a drop of the corresponding index by 24.2 points. This pushed the index for the Hungarian economy into negative territory, indicating that negative expectations prevailed. The index for the Czech Republic and Poland also fell sharply in December, by 13.1 and 11.5 points, respectively. Expectations for the Turkish economy were also notably subdued, with its index dropping by 10.7 points. Overall expectations for the region slid by 23.7 points, nearing zero, indicating that positive expectations are balanced with negative ones.

Significantly Better Assessment of the Current Situation in Croatia

Experts included in the survey have significantly improved their assessment of the current situation in the Croatian economy, with the corresponding index jumping by 11.6 points to minus 27.6 points. This means that negative assessments still outweigh positive ones. In November, the index fell by 5.8 points.

The most significant improvements compared to November were in experts’ assessments of the situation in the Slovak and Romanian economies, reflected in jumps of the corresponding indices by 20.5 and 15 points, respectively. The Polish economy also received a better assessment, with its index increasing by 8.2 points. Conversely, experts rated the situation in the Hungarian economy significantly worse than in November, causing the corresponding index to plummet by 22.4 points, dropping into negative territory at minus 7.4 points, indicating that negative assessments prevailed.

The situation in the Eastern and Central European region as a whole was rated somewhat worse than in the previous month, with a drop in the index by 2.8 points to 11.5 points.