The Wind Continues to Blow, So Politicians Can Still Fly Over Croatia

Readers of the printed edition of Lider on the page alongside today’s ‘Ekonomalije’ see an advertisement for a new book in Lider’s library. It is titled ‘When the Wind Blows, Turkeys Fly’ and it contains 135 of the five hundred or so published ‘Ekonomalije’ to date. The timing of the book’s release was set to coincide with the year in which Lider marks ten years of publication, but also with the assumption that by mid-December Croatia will already have a new government. Thus, the reminder of all the detours and missed solutions may be useful for someone to prevent scenarios with previous governments from repeating.

The book also includes proposals on what should be done to prevent Croatia from ending up in bankruptcy. These are not just the chronicler’s ideas. They were developed in many discussions with entrepreneurs and managers, and in these columns, they are often just media-articulated. And now, with almost one hundred percent certainty, it can be said that Most’s performance regarding a joint government has reached the final act in which the long-planned HDZ-Most government will be formed.

Lessons from Time Travel No matter how much I have reservations about the possible reach of politician Božo Petrov, I must admit that this psychiatrist has cornered me on one issue. The book of selected ‘Ekonomalije’ from 2005 – 2015 clearly reveals that on several occasions I explicitly advocate for finally trying an economist (or businessman) as prime minister. If HDZ already has four candidates for ‘expert prime minister’ (the term is somewhat broad and imprecise), perhaps one will indeed be knowledgeable in economics. Such a choice would deserve greater support than the chronically usual. At least at the beginning. Of course, this does not automatically mean that a government under the guidance of such an expert will avoid the behavioral pattern that has established itself over the past ten years and more. To show that many things are not new, here are a few fragments from the book ‘When the Wind Blows, Turkeys Fly’. A little time travel while the government is being formed:
‘At the end of 2005, then Prime Minister Sanader announced that he would travel around Europe for a month and a half because the interest of potential investors is ‘now much greater’. The warning that ‘Croatia does not need every investment from the West’, but that desirable investors are ‘those who will produce for export, not buy the domestic market’, went unheard. Indeed, Sanader did not go on that tour either. Infrastructure investments financed by state borrowing began with the ‘painting of tunnels.’

From HDZ, it was once announced that they had prepared large infrastructure investments (the Drava-Sava canal…) for the period after they come to power.

‘Ekonomalije’ published on April 21, 2006, were titled ‘National Consensus Achieved in Ignoring Public Debt’. And the title in the same place, but in 2013, read ‘Croatia is a country that has reconciled with the fact that it will go bankrupt’. The Most members have not clearly defined their stance on public debt, so it will be interesting to see when their mega-reform ideas collide with the restraint of public debt. Another challenge for a possible expert prime minister.

All Economic Sects From today’s perspective, I find the column published on July 16, 2010, during Zoran Milanović’s government, particularly interesting. The subtitle reads: ‘The recession has created groups that behave like religious sects. Along with the ‘Church of Blessed Foreign Debt’, there operates the ‘Church of EU Apparitions’, as well as the sect of ‘Better Second Half’ and ‘Holy Strong Kuna’.’ It will be especially interesting to follow, if the HDZ-Most coalition is realized, the relationship with the Croatian National Bank. In mid-2006, the title of ‘Ekonomalija’ was ‘Governor for Prime Minister’ with the explanation that ‘Rohatinski should be placed in a position to implement the measures he has been requesting from the current prime minister for years’. The leadership in the HNB has changed, but the relationships have remained largely similar.

The book ‘When the Wind Blows, Turkeys Fly’ is divided into chapters by calendar years. Each is marked by one characteristic chosen by the author: 2005 – euphoria; 2006 – corruption; 2007 – parliamentary elections; 2008 – denial of the crisis; 2009 – entry into NATO; 2010 – the year of lost time; 2011 – the second year of lost time; 2012 – His Majesty the Workplace; 2013 – the year of apathy; 2014 – the year marked by applications and exports.
Since the book went to print before the results of the parliamentary elections, 2015 was assessed as the year of emerging from recession. Perhaps Most should be chosen for the emergence. But for now, it is more of a punishment for SDP and HDZ than a solution. So, it will only be in 2016 that we will need to see whether it will be a positive or negative phenomenon.