The Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS) will publish today a report on industrial production for September, and macroeconomists expect its growth for the eighth consecutive month, albeit slower than a month prior.
Four macroeconomists who participated in a Hina survey estimate that industrial production in September increased by an average of 1.1 percent compared to the same month last year. Their estimates range from stagnation to a growth of 2 percent.
If the estimates prove accurate, it would mark the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year production growth, a trend not seen since 2007, two years before the recession.
However, a slowdown in growth is expected, given that in August, industrial production jumped by 2.8 percent.
“We expect year-on-year growth in industrial production influenced by a modest recovery in domestic demand and the continued growth of commodity exports,” states one of the macroeconomists in the Hina survey.
In addition to strengthening domestic demand, the growth of the EU economy, Croatia’s largest foreign trade partner, positively impacts the industry, leading to an increase in Croatian commodity exports.
In the first eight months of this year, industrial production was 1.9 percent higher compared to the same period last year.
If the positive trend continues, 2015 would be the second consecutive year of production growth. Last year, the industry strengthened by 1.3 percent compared to 2013, marking its first year-on-year growth after five years of continuous decline.
