How Dangerous is the Deterioration of Relations with Key Foreign Trade Partners for Croatia?

Five countries with which Croatia shares a land border are among its key foreign trade partners. In Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Hungary, and Montenegro, we achieve more than 30 percent of total exports. The danger of neighborly tensions is illustrated by the fact that last year we exported goods worth about 22 billion kuna to these markets.

The refugee-migrant crisis has seriously strained relations throughout the once happy and united European Union, but in the case of Croatia, the current state of relations with neighbors has perhaps reached its lowest level ever. Although tensions have eased in recent days, Croatia has never had fewer friends in a political sense. There is no closer or more distant neighbor with whom Croatia does not have some problem, and the arrival of countless thousands of refugees and migrants has raised simmering grievances and specific disputes to a whole new level. When you add to this the pre-election campaign in Croatia and the calculations of the ruling left coalition with an incursion into the right voter base, you get an explosive mix centered around the archetypal Croatian enemy, Serbia.

How does all this affect economic relations? Many indicators regarding economic relations with neighbors have never been better. The record tourist season has been significantly aided by neighbors – tourists from six neighboring countries (including Italy) achieved 16.3 million overnight stays in the first eight months of this year, accounting for 27 percent of the total number. Likewise, almost all data on trade exchange and the number of tourists from these countries show growth. We have written about this and much more in the weekly Lider, and now we present to you the bilateral figures with neighboring countries.

Italy

Exports to Italy I. – VI. 2015.: 5.7 billion kuna (+3%)
Imports from Italy I. – VI. 2015.: 9.5 billion kuna (+5.3%)
Direct investments 1993. – 2014.
• From Croatia to Italy: 27.8 million euros
• From Italy to Croatia: 1.45 billion euros
Tourism I. – VIII. 2015.: 4,588,740 overnight stays (+6.9%)

Slovenia

Exports to Slovenia I. – VI. 2015.: 5.2 billion kuna (+22.9%)
Imports from Slovenia I. – VI. 2015.: 7.3 billion kuna (+4.6%)
Direct investments 1993. – 2014.
• From Croatia to Slovenia: 608.5 million euros
• From Slovenia to Croatia: 1.2 billion euros
Tourism I. – VIII. 2015.: 7,325,946 overnight stays (+4.5%)

Hungary

Exports to Hungary I. – VI. 2015.: 1.5 billion kuna (+24%)
Imports from Hungary I. – VI. 2015.: 5.3 billion kuna (+30.6%)
Direct investments 1993. – 2014.
• From Croatia to Hungary: 24 million euros
• From Hungary to Croatia: 2.17 billion euros
Tourism I. – VIII. 2015.: 2,257,299 overnight stays (+16.9%)

Serbia

Exports to Serbia I. – VI. 2015.: 1.9 billion kuna (+12.8%)
Imports from Serbia I. – VI. 2015.: 1.5 billion kuna (+14.8%)
Direct investments 1993. – 2014.
• From Croatia to Serbia: 685.2 million euros
• From Serbia to Croatia: 6.6 million euros
Tourism I. – VIII. 2015.: 583,877 overnight stays (+11.7%)

Montenegro

Exports to Montenegro I. – VI. 2015.: 500 million kuna (+6.4%)
Imports from Montenegro I. – VI. 2015.: 12.6 million kuna (-68.2%)
Direct investments 1993. – 2014.
• From Croatia to Montenegro: 68.5 million euros
• From Montenegro to Croatia: negligible
Tourism I. – VIII. 2015.: 29,846 overnight stays (+15.2%)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina I. – VI. 2015.: 4.1 billion kuna (-6.4%)
Imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina I. – VI. 2015.: 1.7 billion kuna (-1.8%)
Direct investments 1993. – 2014.
• From Croatia to Bosnia and Herzegovina: 723 million euros
• From Bosnia and Herzegovina to Croatia: 146.5 million euros
Tourism I. – VIII. 2015.: 1,471,199 overnight stays (+19.6%)

Croatia achieves 45% of its exports in neighboring countries;
42 billion kuna is the value of total Croatian exports in the first half of the year. We exported 19 billion kuna to neighboring countries.