GDP will grow by about three percent in the third quarter, but the overall growth for 2015 will also be higher than analysts expect – around 1.5 percent, estimates investor Nenad Bakić on his blog Eclectica.
Bakić bases his estimates for the third quarter primarily on a successful tourist season, as tourism revenues are expected to exceed eight billion euros, reports Jutarnji list.
– Therefore, let us assume that the net contribution of tourism to GDP in 2015 will be about 350-400 million euros higher than in 2014. Almost all of this is concentrated in the third quarter – notes Bakić.
Bakić’s calculation is as follows – GDP last year in the third quarter was about 89.5 billion kuna, which was 27.2 percent of the annual GDP, an increase of about 350-400 million kuna is about 3-3.3 percent growth in the third quarter. Additionally, he thinks that low oil prices and household consumption, despite slow growth, will also impact GDP growth.
Nenad Bakić is so optimistic that he claims that the GDP growth of three percent in the third quarter of this year is conservative.
For comparison, Hypo bank predicts that GDP will grow by 1.5 to two percent in the third quarter, and on an annual basis one percent. Zagrebačka banka expects GDP growth of 0.8 percent in 2015, and only 0.9 percent in 2016.
