SDP and HDZ will lead a ‘dead heat’ in the elections

In September, SDP increased in the regular Crobarometer conducted by Ipsos Puls, trailing HDZ by 4 percent. HDZ currently has support of 30 percent, while SDP stands at 25.3 percent.

Nova TV reports that the gap between the two parties has decreased from over 8 to 5 percent in a month. HDZ’s ‘voter base’ currently ranges politically from 26.6 in the worst case to 33.4 in the best case. SDP’s ‘voter base’ ranges from 22.1 in the worst to 28.5 in the best case.

Bandić is going up, ORaH down

Živi zid has a current support of 6.6 percent, and the Bandić Milan 365 party has broken into 4th place with a support of 4.3 percent. ORaH has been losing support for months and in September stopped at 3.8 percent, placing it in 5th position.

Parties around 2 percent have found alliances in HDZ and SDP and are saving themselves

HSS has a support of 2.7 percent, the independent list MOST is at 2.5 percent, and BUZ has a support of 1.9 percent. HNS ends September with a support of 1.7 percent. Naprijed Hrvatska of Ive Josipović is also at 1.7 percent, HDSSB is at 1.3 percent, as are the Labourists. HSP and Reformists Radimir Čačić each have 1.1 percent. Other parties have a support of 5.4 percent, and undecided voters are at 9.3, a number that is decreasing.

Patriotic Coalition first, Croatia is Growing second

The Patriotic Coalition, led by HDZ, is at 33 percent. However, the political ‘voter base’ of that coalition ranges from 29.6 in the worst case to 36.4 in the best case. Croatia is Growing, composed of the ruling party, currently has a support of 29.1 percent from voters, and the possible range of that coalition is, in the worst case, 25.8 to, in the best case, 32.4 percent support.

Who will decide on the new government?

Živi zid has a support of 7.3 percent, and Bandić Milan 365 is at 4.5 percent support from voters. Other parties and coalitions that could decide on the new government include ORaH with 4.1, the independent list MOST with 3.4 percent. In some electoral units, the coalition Josipović – Čačić could achieve a mandate, currently enjoying a support of 2.4 percent. The coalition of HSP and the Conservative Party has 1.7 percent. HDSSB is at 1.4 percent, while other parties gain 4.7 percent, with undecided voters at 8.4 percent.

The government has double the support since December

Currently, 32 percent of voters approve of the government’s policy, which is a significant increase compared to December 2014, when 17 percent approved of the government’s policy. However, the majority still does not support the government’s policy, specifically 61 percent. At this moment, another 7 percent of voters do not know whom to trust.

Fewer citizens think that Croatia’s direction is bad

The majority of citizens, specifically 62 percent, believe that the direction Croatia is heading is wrong, which is significantly less compared to December 2014, when that number was 82. Since then, that number has been gradually decreasing. It is evident that people are changing their opinions as there has been almost a similar increase in those who believe the country is heading in the right direction, with the number rising from 11 percent in December 2014 to 28 percent today. About 10 percent of Croatian citizens have no opinion on the direction of the country’s movement.

Institutions receive lower ratings

The work of the President’s office was rated by citizens at 3.15, which is slightly lower than last month when it was 3.28. The government was rated at 2.31, which is slightly better than last month when that rating was 2.27. The Croatian Parliament ends its 4th year of mandate with a rating of 2.09, which is also slightly lower than in August 2015, when the rating was 2.19.