When you cannot shorten an interview because the answers are connected, concise, broad, and clear, then you know you have come across an expert who will be an important interlocutor for economic topics in the future.
Kristijan Kotarski is a relatively fresh PhD who is just building his career, but based on his knowledge of political economy (he obtained his doctorate, among other things, in the political economy of China), he seems to be part of the old economic guard. Although he has a somewhat fresher perspective on the functioning of the global economy, when it comes to Croatia, there is no doubt – reforms, reforms, and a bit more reforms.
Can we even, even with BRICS countries, count on pre-crisis growth rates? Or at least some similar percentages?
– Unfortunately, no. China is in a phase of economic slowdown with the Party’s imperative to implement reforms that will reduce the immense inefficiency arising from growth based on ‘credit steroids’. Since 2008, China has increased its total debt from seven thousand to an incredible 28 trillion dollars. This is unprecedented in modern economic history. Regardless of the scenario of a hard or soft landing in China, this will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the reduction of exports from Brazil, Russia, South Africa, and Australia. Combined with the expected FED increase in the discount rate, this could be very devastating for many of them with large dollar debts of non-financial corporations, which, according to BIS, exceed nine trillion dollars.
How much can the recent upward rebalancing help or hinder the future government?
