Ante Babić: Serbia will lose more from this development than Croatia

After the conflicts between the Croatian and Serbian sides regarding border traffic led to a practical paralysis of road trade between the two countries, we asked some of the leading domestic economic experts to assess the possible consequences of these moves, as well as their seriousness.

Professor Ante Babić, the initiator of the EUforija project, believes that Serbia will lose more from this development than Croatia.

– This is about the pressure from the Croatian government for Serbia to accept refugees, thus a purely political move. You must know that these trade wars have nothing to do with the economy – says Babić.

Financial consultant Damir Novotny, on the other hand, believes that this development will cause great damage to the domestic economy.

– The negative consequences that the Croatian economy will feel are a result of the ’male competition’ between Milanović and Vučić. This crisis must be resolved as soon as possible. Bajakovo is one of the more important European corridors and it must not be blocked. If I were in power, I would resolve this in the shortest possible time because I understand the importance of the problem – says Novotny.

– Croatia may lose more than Serbia. The problem is not so much in the logistics costs, but in the fact that Croatian companies, which invest much more in their image in Serbia than vice versa, may lose the loyalty of local customers – fears economic analyst Željko Lovrinčević.

However, he believes that the solution to the Croatian-Serbian problem is in the hands of the Hungarians and Austrians.

– Although it is clear to everyone that this is about gathering political points and pre-election games, the resolution of the entire situation will depend on the agreement between Hungary and Austria, meaning whether they will open the borders to northern Europe for refugees. As for trade and the congestion of freight vehicles, be assured that transporters from Southeast Europe will very quickly find other alternative road routes – concludes Lovrinčević.

Ljubo Jurčić sees the mutual blockades at the border as a textbook example of a trade war.

– Historically speaking, trade wars are extremely harmful to the economy, equally for the country that started it as well as for all those involved in that conflict. In trade wars, the country with greater international exchange always loses more – explains Jurčić. He strongly disagrees with this way of resolving the situation with refugees.

– In politics, interest and alignment of the same must prevail, not vanity and pride. This policy of the Croatian government only harms the Croatian economy – adds Jurčić.