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Republicans and Democrats Have Not Moved from Their Positions in Budget Discussion

On Wall Street, stock prices slightly fell on Wednesday as investors are concerned about the intransigence of Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Congress regarding the budget, which could lead to a prolonged government shutdown.

The Dow Jones dropped 58 points, or 0.39 percent, to 15,133 points, while the S&P 500 slid 0.07 percent to 1,693 points, and the Nasdaq index fell 0.08 percent to 3,815 points.

On the second day since the government shutdown began, Republicans and Democrats have not budged in their budget discussions, leading investors to fear that hundreds of thousands of federal employees could remain on unpaid leave longer than anticipated.

There is a widespread belief that a shorter government shutdown should not significantly impact the market, but a longer one could undermine consumer confidence and slow economic growth.

Concerns are also growing as the deadline approaches for Congress to approve a proposal to raise the allowable debt ceiling from the current $16.7 trillion.

If an agreement is not reached by October 17, the U.S. government will not be able to meet all its financial obligations, and the U.S. could lose its top-tier triple-A credit rating.

“This market decline cannot be called panic. However, the longer the shutdown lasts and the closer we get to the October 17 deadline, investors will become increasingly nervous. Although it seemed unbelievable not long ago, it now seems possible that the government will not be able to meet all its obligations after that deadline,” says Quincy Krosby, an analyst at Prudential Financial.

Macroeconomic data is also not instilling confidence. According to the ADP report, 166,000 new jobs were created in the U.S. private sector in September, fewer than expected.

This data typically serves as a fairly accurate precursor to the official employment report in the U.S. That report, which usually has a significant impact on the market, is expected to be released on Friday, provided a budget agreement is reached by then.

Investor concerns are indicated by the rise of the VIX ‘fear index’ of the Chicago Board Options Exchange by nearly 7 percent, to 16.6 points. Over the past two weeks, this index has jumped more than 25 percent, showing that investors are increasingly hedging their portfolios against potential further declines in stock prices.

Investor caution is also reflected in the thin trading volume. On Wall Street, NYSE MKT, and Nasdaq, 5.3 billion shares changed hands yesterday, while the average daily volume this year is 6.3 billion.

European stock prices also fell yesterday. The London FTSE index dropped 0.35 percent to 6,437 points, while the Frankfurt DAX slid 0.69 percent to 8,629 points, and the Paris CAC fell 0.92 percent to 4,158 points.