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Could the government shutdown last two weeks?

On Wall Street, stock prices rose on Tuesday, fueled by investors’ hope that the government shutdown will not last long, and that a budget agreement and an increase in the government’s borrowing limit will soon be reached in Washington.

The Dow Jones gained 62 points, or 0.41 percent, to 15,191 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.80 percent to 1,695 points, and the Nasdaq index increased by 1.23 percent to 3,817 points.

Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a budget agreement by midnight on Monday for the fiscal year starting October 1, as they are at odds over funding for the healthcare reform insisted upon by President Barack Obama.

As a result, many government services have been suspended since yesterday, and about one million employees are at home on unpaid leave.

However, the first government shutdown in nearly two decades did not cause panic in the market, as investors believe it will not last long.

Additionally, in the previous government shutdown in 1995, the S&P 500 index slightly increased. Investors hope for a similar scenario to unfold as soon as Republicans and Democrats agree on the budget, thus considering any drop in stock prices a good buying opportunity.

 - Investors seem to think this is not a major problem. For me, however, the most important fact is that one million people will not receive paychecks and are not producing anything, says Eric Lascelles, an economist at RBC Global Asset Management, who estimates that each week of the shutdown will reduce U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter by 0.1 percentage points.

However, there is a widespread belief in the market that the government shutdown will not significantly impact the market if a budget agreement is reached quickly. Yet, a longer shutdown could undermine consumer confidence and slow economic growth.

Also concerning is the approaching deadline by which Congress must approve the proposal to raise the government’s borrowing limit from the current $16.7 trillion.

If an agreement is not reached by October 17, the U.S. government will not be able to meet all its financial obligations, and the U.S. could lose its top-tier triple-A credit rating.

 - The government shutdown could last two weeks, until October 17, and then the situation could worsen. The budget discussion and the borrowing discussion are interconnected, thus increasing pressure on each other. This could significantly impact the market, says David R. Kotok, director at Cumberland Advisors.

And on most European exchanges, stock prices also rose yesterday. The Frankfurt DAX index strengthened by 1.10 percent to 8,689 points, while the Paris CAC rose by 1.18 percent to 4,196 points. The London FTSE index, on the other hand, weakened by 0.03 percent to 6,460 points.