Colonel or the deceased

Is this the beginning of the end for Zoran Milanović? Probably not for his political career, although one never knows what can happen overnight, but it could perhaps be the beginning of the end of his dominance within the SDP.

Since Milanović took the helm of the SDP after the 10th extraordinary electoral convention held on June 7, 2007 (defeating Željka Antunović by 150 votes), he has managed to further strengthen the party whose popularity grew precisely because of him. Young, educated, and bold enough to openly express his thoughts, he certainly appealed to the members and supporters of the SDP who were slowly losing faith in the party due to Račan’s cowardice. Račan lost the elections at the end of 2003 primarily due to the fact that he was a coward, as he did not dare to openly confront the extreme HDZ rally-goers, thereby sending a message to citizens that he was incapable of restoring order in the country and punishing criminals.

Milanović seemed different, unburdened by a communist past, a leader of those forces that would confront both the intolerant right and criminals, as well as the remaining remnants of the League of Communists. I must admit that I was definitely impressed after one sentence spoken in the show Nedjeljom u 2, shortly after he was elected president of the SDP. When asked by colleague Aleksandar Stanković ‘Tito or Tuđman?’, Milanović replied: ‘Well, if I really have to choose, then Tito’, and he elaborated on this in the further conversation. That one sentence was the best indicator of which worldview he belongs to, as he did not want to support Tuđman’s nationalism, nor Tito’s dictatorship, but Josip Broz is certainly a more significant historical figure than Tuđman. That sentence also showed that the SDP, with him at the helm, wants to go in a new, modern, and tolerant direction, without being burdened by communist and nationalist rigidity.

Moreover, although it seems trivial, with another move he showed that his SDP would differ from Račan’s. You may find it amusing, dear reader, that I will mention this, but I truly see things this way. Namely, during Račan’s time, beans were most often served at various gatherings, pretending that the SDP was a party of workers and the oppressed poor, while also not wasting money on ordering expensive food. However, those same workers and the poor lost faith in the party during their rule from 2000 to the end of 2003. Milanović, on the other hand, rejected beans and ordered catering, probably believing that respecting the tradition of eating beans was pointless, that it was absurd to save on that, and that he would present himself better to the people by vigorously advocating his views rather than pretending solidarity by eating beans. And I think he was right there too.

However, Milanović then made a mistake, as he did not want to create a coalition against the HDZ and the more conservative part of the political scene in the upcoming elections at the end of 2007, thus losing the elections, even though he almost had power in his hands. His second mistake was the persistent announcement of Ljubo Jurčić as prime minister, which he then contradicted by presenting himself as a candidate.

He corrected the mistake four years later when he formed the Kukuriku coalition, immediately imposing himself as the future prime minister and convincingly winning the elections. However, on the wings of success and the belief that he was more powerful than ever, he contradicted his own achievements in democratizing the SDP. Milanović was elected democratically as president of the SDP, and then this year he practically nullified the same election of Davor Bernardić as president of the Zagreb SDP by taking away Bernardić’s opportunity to run for mayor of Zagreb. No matter how much he blamed Bernardić for inactivity, it was precisely this elimination of the first man of the Zagreb SDP from the mayoral race that contributed the most to the downfall of the SDP and the resurrection of Milan Bandić. As a result, his popularity in the strongest SDP stronghold began to decline, and the latest events related to lex Perković and the conflict with the EU, no matter how much he showed firmness, further shook him. This is confirmed by my interlocutors with whom I chat daily, who are not averse to the SDP. The other night I spoke with a member of the Zagreb SDP who also holds a position in the local organization, and he is dissatisfied with Milanović’s defiance towards the European Commission.

Milanović is certainly not a man who will promote intolerance; he is certainly a man who will more principled defend Croatian interests than the HDZ’s habitual patriots – loudmouths who would bow their heads at the slightest raised voice of world powers, but such a policy could indeed have consequences for Croatia. The question now is whether Milanović is really that convinced of what he says, or if he has recklessly put himself in a position where there is no turning back, so he does not yield. If he yields, it will be his personal defeat, but if he continues, he could suffer defeat again, unless a compromise solution is found with the European Commission that would save his honor. But even then, he will be politically damaged. Finally, as a third possible solution, Milanović could make slight corrections and thus defeat the European Commission, which is unlikely.

This, along with the downfall of Bernardić, could further open processes within the SDP and create a bloc against Milanović, especially if Bernardić wins the upcoming elections in the Zagreb SDP. Milanović would no longer have full support within the party, and it is questionable what could happen to his political career in the coming years. What is certain, however, is that whether he is a deceased or a colonel, Croatia’s reputation due to the disrespect of agreements, no matter how it accepted them as harmful HDZ governance, has been significantly damaged thanks to the once-promising Milanović.