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The Attack on Syria is Already Priced into Stock Prices

Last week, stock prices on global exchanges sharply fell as investors are uncertain about a possible military attack by the U.S. on Syria, as well as the uncertainty regarding the reduction of the Fed’s stimulative monetary measures.

On Wall Street last week, the Dow Jones weakened by 1.3 percent to 14,810 points, while the S&P 500 slid by 1.8 percent to 1,632 points, and the Nasdaq index fell by 1.9 percent to 3,589 points.

The decline in stock prices for the fourth consecutive week is a result of investors’ concerns about a possible attack by U.S. forces on Syria, as U.S. officials have stated that the Syrian government should be punished for the use of chemical weapons.

“The attack on Syria is already priced into stock prices, but an escalation of the crisis could trigger accompanying consequences that investors are not fully aware of, such as complications from a possible rise in oil prices,” says Jim McDonald, a strategist at Northern Trust Global Management.

Due to fears that the Syrian crisis will disrupt oil supply from the Middle East, the prices of ‘black gold’ reached their highest levels in six months last week.

While this spurred a rise in stock prices of oil companies, many other sectors, such as airlines, found themselves under pressure as rising fuel prices increase their operating costs.

The construction sector was also among the losers after it was reported that existing home sales in July in the U.S. fell for the second consecutive month, and significantly more than expected.

“These data show that the rise in real estate prices and mortgage interest rates has begun to erode sales, which is disappointing,” says McDonald.

Uncertain investors are increasingly hedging their portfolios against a possible further decline in stock prices, leading to a 22 percent jump in the VIX ‘fear index’ of the Chicago Options Exchange last week.

Neither do macroeconomic data instill confidence. Indeed, according to revised data, the U.S. economy grew by 2.5 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, which is above expectations and higher than the 1.7 percent indicated by the first estimate.

However, the acceleration of growth in the world’s largest economy means that the U.S. central bank could reduce stimulative monetary measures as early as September, which have long been driving stock price increases.

Additionally, weak data on inflation, American consumer spending, and a decline in their sentiment show that the U.S. economy is still not firmly on the path to recovery.

As a result, investors are cautious, and trading volume last week was very thin. On Wall Street, NYSE MKT, and Nasdaq, owners changed significantly less than 6.3 billion shares daily, which is the average daily volume this year.

After last week’s decline in stock prices, the S&P 500 fell by 3.1 percent throughout August, marking its largest monthly loss since May 2012. The Dow Jones simultaneously slid by 4.4 percent, while the Nasdaq index fell by 1 percent.

Stock prices also fell on European exchanges last week. The London FTSE weakened by 1.2 percent to 6,412 points, while the Frankfurt DAX plunged by 3.7 percent to 8,103 points, and the Paris CAC fell by 3.3 percent to 3,933 points.

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell by 2 percent to 13,388 points.