Soybean meal prices will have no reason for a ‘surge’ upwards

Last week, everyone debated the weather forecast, i.e., the weather conditions or misfortunes that affect the movement of corn prices. Will they rise or will prices fall?

At the beginning of last week, concerns were raised when the report on the state of corn crops showed a slight decline in the overall condition of the crops. Approximately 65 percent of corn crops are in very good condition, so there is not much reason for concern about corn.
The weather conditions for the next 10 days should be even better for corn crops, so corn will receive enough sunlight.
Although everything looks ideal, some comments predict that the USDA’s crop estimate is slightly higher, and that ultimately the yield will fall by about 5 percent. However, it is still early to talk about definitive numbers.
The weather forecast will determine corn prices in the coming weeks, so it is necessary to monitor the weather forecast.

Old soybean and soybean meal crops are still trading very high, and it is assumed that the situation will not change significantly in the next few weeks as well.
Delays in loading goods in Brazil, which can last over 60 days, and the demand for soybean meal have kept soybean prices high. Only a new harvest in America can change the soybean supply situation and push prices down.
Nothing significant can be done regarding the prices of old and new crops, as with corn, the weather situation will play a major role. The situation could change significantly only if China suddenly decided to buy half of the American soybean crop.

As the weather forecast for the next 10 days looks ideal, soybean meal prices will have no reason for a ‘surge’ upwards, and they should slightly decrease while old crop prices will remain high due to strong demand for old soybean crops.

In the domestic market, there are no significant changes, which means that Croatian consumers continue to source soybean meal from the port of Koper. According to the latest information, it is still uncertain whether ships with soybean meal will even arrive in Croatia and where the goods will be unloaded, in the port of Rijeka or in Škrljevo. The second option does not please anyone as it brings complications regarding weighing the goods.
The fishing quota in northern Peru is in effect for ten days, and there are over 100,000 mt available for catch. Therefore, it seems that the quota will be approximately or even fully filled. The situation in the south of the country is not nearly as good, where of the 400,000 mt quota to be filled by the end of August, 80 percent remains.
According to trade reports from Peru, fishmeal sales have surged to as much as 60,000 mt sold in a week. This is an indicator of what can happen when prices reach an acceptable level.
As the end of the season approaches and sales increase, fishmeal stocks are rapidly depleting. A couple of weeks ago, stocks were around 200,000 mt, while today they are estimated at 140,000 mt or even 100,000 mt.
Reports from China indicate a clearing of old stocks and demand for new quantities of Peruvian fishmeal in the coming days.
Although prices were lower last week, an increase is expected due to increased demand.

Iva Marđetko Mateš, Vajda Elvit