In May, retail trade in Croatia unexpectedly increased by 1.1 percent year-on-year, marking the first rise in consumption since February of last year.
The Croatian Bureau of Statistics today published its first estimate indicating that retail trade turnover, achieved by all business entities engaged in this activity regardless of their primary activity, nominally increased by 3.2 percent in May compared to the same month last year, while it strengthened in real terms by 1.1 percent.
This is significantly better data than expected. Five macroeconomists who participated in a Hina survey had, on average, anticipated a real decline in consumption in May compared to the same month last year of 1.4 percent. Their estimates ranged from a decline of 1 to 1.8 percent.
Retail trade turnover had been continuously declining since March of last year, but in recent months the decline has slowed, amounting to only 0.6 percent in April.
– Since February, movements in retail trade have shown improvement, which is, however, largely a result of the base effect, given that since March of last year, retail trade began recording annual real rates of decline. Nevertheless, based on growth in one month, we cannot speak of a recovery in retail trade, especially considering the significant base effect, state analysts from the Economic Research Department of Raiffeisenbank Austria (RBA) in their commentary on the CBS report.
