The State Bureau of Statistics will today publish the first estimate of retail trade turnover for April, which, as expected by most macroeconomists, could fall for the 14th consecutive month, but less than a month earlier.
Four macroeconomists who participated in the Hina survey expect, on average, a decline in consumption in April compared to the same month last year of 1.3 percent. Their estimates range from a decline of 3.8 percent to an increase of 0.8 percent.
This would mark the 14th consecutive month of declining consumption, but at a slower rate than in March, when retail trade turnover, according to seasonally adjusted data, fell by 2.1 percent.
-Due to high unemployment, falling real disposable income, rising energy prices, and a decline in car sales, we expect further decline in consumption in April- states one of the macroeconomists in the Hina survey.
However, considering that consumption sharply fell a year ago, which resulted in a low base, a slowdown in the decline of retail trade turnover is expected, and one of the macroeconomists believes it could even increase.
