The State Bureau of Statistics will today publish the first estimate of retail trade turnover for November of last year, and due to rising unemployment and a decline in real disposable income, a consumption decline is expected for the ninth consecutive month.
Five macroeconomists who participated in a Hina survey expect, on average, a decline in consumption in November compared to the same month of the previous year of 5.9 percent. All respondents expect a decline, ranging from 5.4 to 6.5 percent.
This would mark the ninth consecutive month of declining consumption and a greater decline than in October, when retail trade turnover weakened by 5.7 percent.
– We expect the continuation of extremely unfavorable trends in retail trade turnover, which largely reflects the state and trends in the labor market – high unemployment, low employment, a decline in disposable income, high consumer pessimism, and rational consumption primarily focused on meeting basic life needs – states one of the macroeconomists in the Hina survey.
Domestic consumption, among other factors, is weakening due to rising unemployment. At the end of November, approximately 347,000 unemployed individuals were registered with the Croatian Employment Service, which is 14.9 percent, or nearly 45,000 more than in the same month of the previous year.
The decline in consumption is also attributed, according to macroeconomists, to consumer pessimism.
– Further reductions in employment and the continuation of a strong decline in real net wages, along with announcements of new taxes and price increases, will not allow for significant changes in consumer trends – concludes one of the macroeconomists in the Hina survey.
