Stagnation of the Index with Modest Turnover

On the last day of this year, no significant fluctuations of the Crobex are expected on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, and a continuation of modest turnover is likely due to the shortened trading day and the absence of stimulating news.

Of the 5 analysts from brokerage firms who participated in the Hina survey, 4 expect stagnation of the Crobex today, while one anticipates an increase. The Crobex index strengthened by 0.58 percent last week, reaching 1,738 points, while Crobex10 increased by 0.08 percent to 973 points. The regular turnover in shares amounted to only 18.6 million kuna, which is nearly five times lower than the week before.

The year-end finds the indices with minimal changes – Crobex is down 0.07 percent compared to the beginning of the year, while Crobex10 is down 0.27 percent. The highest turnover last week was achieved by HT shares, amounting to 2.14 million kuna, with a price increase of 1.12 percent to 200.33 kuna.

Following is the share of Kaštelanski Staklenici, with a turnover of 1.4 million kuna and a price drop of 7.4 percent to 675.02 kuna. The shares of the sugar factory Viro were also in greater focus for investors, with a price increase of 5.15 percent last week to 536.15 kuna, alongside a turnover of 1.2 million kuna.

The main assembly of Vira shareholders on Thursday did not accept the Management’s proposal to withdraw the company’s shares from the Regulated Market of the Zagreb Stock Exchange, but the proposal for a dividend payout of 20 kuna per share from retained earnings from 2011 was accepted.

– While the major indices on foreign exchanges weakened last week as investors focused on the ‘fiscal cliff’, the domestic market indices slightly strengthened. However, the turnover was quite modest, averaging around 5.7 million kuna daily – says Davor Špoljar, senior capital market analyst at Erste & Steiermaerkische Bank.

In terms of gains, the Dioki share stood out with a price jump of 8.3 percent, as well as the Termes group and Luka Ploče, both up by 8.2 percent. On the losing side, the shares of Zvijezda led with a price drop of 10.5 percent, along with Badel down by 6.3 percent.

On global exchanges, stock prices fell last week due to a lack of progress in negotiations in Washington regarding budget cuts, increasing the risk of a ‘fiscal cliff’ and recession in the U.S. economy. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones fell by 1.9 percent last week, and the S&P 500 lost the same amount. The Nasdaq index, on the other hand, plummeted by 2 percent.

European stock prices also fell last week. The London FTSE index weakened by 0.2 percent, while the Frankfurt DAX slipped by 0.3 percent, and the Paris CAC by 1.1 percent.

– As there are no significant developments in the negotiations regarding the U.S. budget, the indices fell last week. We will see if an agreement on the budget will be reached in Washington today. The fact is that the longer the negotiations drag on, the more uncertainty there will be in the markets – notes Špoljar.

On today’s shortened trading day in the domestic market, Špoljar expects trading to be similar to last Monday. The Zagreb Stock Exchange operates until 1 PM.

– Regarding the direction of the Crobex, it will likely follow the movements of the most important global stock indices. There are no significant business and macroeconomic news, so everything will be focused on negotiations regarding the ‘fiscal cliff’ – concludes Špoljar.