The State Bureau of Statistics will publish today a report on industrial production for November, which, macroeconomists estimate, will show that activity has again fallen by more than 5 percent.
Five macroeconomists who participated in the Hina survey estimate that, on average, industrial production in November slipped by 5.8 percent compared to the same month last year. All expect a decline, ranging from 5 to 7 percent.
A decline of 5.8 percent would be the same as in October, while in September industrial production plummeted by 7.7 percent year-on-year. The decline in industrial activity is primarily due to the weakness of domestic and foreign demand.
“In November, we expect a continuation of the sharp decline in production year-on-year due to weak foreign demand, falling domestic investments and consumption, low competitiveness, and production interruptions at several larger plants due to restructuring,” notes one of the macroeconomists in the Hina survey.
The weakness of domestic demand is indicated by a decline in retail trade for eight consecutive months. During the summer, at the peak of the tourist season, the drop in consumption somewhat slowed, but already in September and October, retail trade fell again by more than 5.5 percent.
At the same time, foreign demand is also weakening as the eurozone economy, our largest trading partner, has plunged into recession.
