The State Bureau of Statistics will publish today a report on retail prices for November, and it is estimated that the annual inflation rate will remain almost unchanged compared to October.
Five macroeconomists who participated in a Hina survey estimate that consumer prices rose by an average of 4.7 percent year-on-year in November. Their estimates range from 4.5 to 4.9 percent.
Since the beginning of the year, inflationary pressures have been continuously rising, reaching 5.0 percent in September, the highest level in almost four years. In October, however, it slipped to 4.8 percent.
The rise in retail prices year-on-year is most influenced by the increase in electricity and gas prices, as well as food.
“In November, we expect a slight slowdown in the growth of prices year-on-year. The greatest impact on slowing inflation should come from the decrease in oil derivative prices on a monthly basis, while the rise in food prices is expected to have the opposite effect,” notes one of the macroeconomists in the Hina survey.
Macroeconomists point out that due to weak domestic demand and recession, pressures for price growth on the demand side are absent.
“However, inflationary pressures have been generated by the increase in the VAT rate, the rise in electricity and gas prices, and higher food prices, which will also be visible in the annual rates of consumer price growth in the coming months,” concludes one of the macroeconomists in the Hina survey.
